Harris Vs. Trump: Vice President Hits Record Lead In 2024 Election Poll, But Independent Voters Could Be Worrisome

Vice President Kamala Harris has grown her lead over former President Donald Trump in a weekly head-to-head poll of likely voters with less than one month until the 2024 presidential election.

What Happened: Harris has shown a lead over Trump in many election polls, while election betting odds and prediction markets have fluctuated to show a tight race as election day nears.

A new Morning Consult poll of likely voters shows Harris' lead tying a record high six points, a lead she had after the presidential debate between the two candidates in September.

The new poll shows the following results from voters, with the results from the Oct. 1 poll in parentheses:

• Kamala Harris: 51% (51%)
• Donald Trump: 45% (46%)
• Someone Else: 2% (2%)
• Don't Know: 2% (2%)

The poll also found that 94% of Democrats backed Harris as their top pick, in line with last week's poll. The poll also found 92% of Republicans backed Trump as their top pick, in line with last week's poll.

Independent voters selected the following as their head-to-head preference, with the results from the Oct. 1 poll in parentheses:

• Kamala Harris: 45% (45%)
• Donald Trump: 44% (44%)
• Someone Else: 5% (5%)
• Don't Know: 5% (5%)

The vice president also has the edge in the 18-34 age voters demographic, leading 53% to 43%. The 10-point lead is in line with last week's lead, but down from a lead of 15 points three weeks ago.  

Among Black voters, Harris leads by 77% to 19%, in line with last week's poll.

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Why It’s Important: Harris ties her record lead, which comes as good news given the predicted tight race and the timing of election day nearing.

The latest poll comes after the vice-presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance, which many media outlets and polls showed Republican Vance as the winner. The latest poll shows that the vice president debate may have had minimal impact on the overall election race.

The bad news for Harris is that Trump continues to show gains or hold his gains from last week among several key demographics, including Independent voters.

Harris had posted a stronger lead among the key Independent voter demographic for several weeks before holding onto a minimal one-point advantage in back-to-back weeks.

The vice president debate shifted favorability rankings with Vance going from 39% to 40% and Walz going from 45% to 48%. Vance saw his best net buzz rating, or the amount of people hearing positive comments about him minus the amount hearing something negative, since joining the Trump ticket.

One likely positive for Harris is the impressive jobs report last week that saw a higher-than-expected figure. The result was the election poll showing net buzz on jobs (+12) and economy (-6) hitting highs not seen since February and March of 2024, respectively.

Another potential negative for Harris is her net buzz falling below double digits for the first time since she became the Democratic Party nominee. This means that the amount of negative comments about her may be increasing or positive commentary is wearing off.

Harris ramped up efforts to be more present with the media this week with appearances on the Call Her Daddy podcast, "60 Minutes," "The Howard Stern Show," "The View" and taking part in a Town Hall.

Next week's poll could show if the media blitz efforts paid off for the vice president.

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