A new election poll points to a close matchup between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election, continuing a recent trend of polls showing a tight race while prediction markets show a wide lead.
What Happened: Election polls for months have predicted a close head-to-head matchup between Trump and Harris for the 2024 presidential election.
A new Emerson College poll illustrates the same picture once again. The latest poll shows the following results, with the results from two weeks ago in parentheses:
- Kamala Harris: 49% (50%)
- Donald Trump: 48% (48%)
- Someone Else: 1% (1%)
- Don't Know: 2% (1%)
The poll found that when undecided voters were asked to pick which candidate they were leaning towards, Harris had a lead of 50% to 49% over Trump.
The latest poll shows Harris with a one-point lead, dropping from a two-point lead two weeks ago and a two-point lead back in September.
"Women and male voters break in near opposite directions: men for Trump, 56% to 42%, and women for Harris, 55% to 41%, Emerson College Polling executive director Spencer Kimball said.
Kimball said Harris is leading the way for Hispanic voters 61% to 35% and Black voters 81% to 12%. White voters back Trump 60% to 38%.
With less than one month until voting day, 80% of voters polled said they made their minds up on a candidate over a month ago, 11% said they made up their minds in the last month and 6% said they made up their minds in the past week. Three percent of voters have not made up their mind.
"The three percent of voters who said they could still change their mind currently favor Harris, 48% to 43%," Kimball added.
The poll found Harris to have a 53% favorable rating and 47% unfavorable rating. Trump holds a 49% favorable rating and a 51% unfavorable rating. While the favorable ratings are close, Harris had a higher percent of voters say they viewed her very favorable than Trump at 41.7% to 36.4% respectively. Trump had more voters say they had a very unfavorable rating of him at 45.7% compared to 41.6% for Harris.
The top three issues for voters were the economy (38%), immigration (16%) and threats to democracy (13%).
The poll was conducted from Oct. 14 through Oct. 16 as Harris continues her media blitz with appearances on podcasts, late night talk shows and other media networks.
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Why It's Important: While Harris maintains an overall lead in the 2024 election based on the Emerson College poll, her lead is shrinking.
A recent Emerson College poll of voters in seven key swing states showed a close race and an unfavorable outcome for Harris.
Here are the results, and the totals from the previous poll in parentheses:
- Arizona: Trump 49% (49%), Harris 47% (48%)
- Georgia: Trump 49% (50%), Harris 48% (47%)
- Michigan: Trump 49% (47%), Harris 49% (49%)
- Nevada: Harris 48% (48%), Trump 47% (48%)
- North Carolina: Trump 49% (48%), Harris 48% (49%)
- Pennsylvania: Trump 49% (48%), Harris 48% (47%)
- Wisconsin: Trump 49% (49%), Harris 49% (48%)
The polls show Trump leading in four of the seven states, Harris leading in one state and the two candidates tied in two states. The last Emerson College poll of the seven states had Trump leading in four states with Harris leading in two states. The August poll had each candidate leading three states.
In the latest poll, Trump gained support in three states, lost support in two states and saw the same support in two states. Harris gained support in three states, lost support in two states and saw the same support in two states.
“With just under four weeks to go, the race remains too close to call in key swing states, all within the margin of error,” Emerson College Polling executive director Spencer Kimball said.
The seven swing states in question together represent 93 electoral votes in the 2024 election. Six of the seven states above were won by Biden in the 2020 election with Trump winning North Carolina. Several of the states were flipped from Trump’s win in the 2016 election.
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