The head-to-head race between Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris remained close in a new election poll with two weeks until the 2024 presidential election.
What Happened: Harris has had the lead over Trump in many election polls and until recent weeks saw her election betting odds and prediction market odds top the former president.
While Harris now trails Trump in betting odds and on prediction markets, election polls continue to show that the current vice president holds a lead among nationally registered voters over the former president.
A new Morning Consult poll of likely voters shows Harris’ lead dropping from a record high six points last week. Harris maintains a lead, something she has been able to accomplish most weeks since President Joe Biden dropped out of the election race.
The new poll shows the following results from voters, with results from the Oct. 15 poll in parentheses:
- Kamala Harris: 50% (50%)
- Donald Trump: 46% (46%)
- Someone Else: 2% (2%)
- Don't Know: 2% (2%)
The poll also found that 95% of Democrats backed Harris as their top pick, up one percentage point from last week's poll. The poll also found 92% of Republicans backed Trump as their top pick, in line with last week's poll.
Independent voters selected the following as their head-to-head preference, with the results from the Oct. 15 poll in parentheses:
- Kamala Harris: 47% (46%)
- Donald Trump: 43% (42%)
- Someone Else: 4% (6%)
- Don't Know: 7% (6%)
The vice president also has the edge in the 18-34 age voters demographic, leading 52% to 44%. The eight-point lead is down from last week's 12-point advantage for the vice president.
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Why It's Important: Harris' lead over Trump remains at four percentage points, the same lead as last week. Two weeks ago, Harris had a record six-point lead over Trump with the 2024 election one month out.
The vice president has seen her leads in the key Independent voter demographic and young voter demographics decline in recent weeks.
Morning Consult reported that Republican candidates like Trump and members running for Congress are seeing improvements in their net favorability scores or the difference between a favorable and unfavorable rating for a person.
Trump's net favorability ranking is -5. While that figure is still underwater and more people view the former president unfavorable than favorable, it is an improvement from a -10 ranking a month ago. Vice President candidate J.D. Vance has a net favorability ranking of -1, an improvement over the past month.
Morning Consult said in the poll that Harris' net buzz ranking, or the amount of people who heard something positive versus negative about her, was only +9 for the week. This tied a record low as Harris is not seeing the same net buzz advantage as in previous weeks. Trump's net buzz ranking stood at -15 for the week. This marked the smallest difference in net buzz between Harris and Trump since her first week on the campaign in July, according to the report.
The newest poll shows that Harris' media blitz including appearances on the Call Her Daddy podcast, "The View," "60 Minutes" and "The Howard Stern Show" might be having a more negative than positive impact on her campaign.
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