Harris Surges In Prediction Markets, Nabs Kalshi Lead With Just Three Days To Go

After trailing Donald Trump in online prediction markets for the past few weeks, Kamala Harris has made late gains with just days to go before Election Day.

What Happened: As of Sunday morning, Harris is at 51% on the Kalshi betting market, which showed Trump with a 65% chance of victory as recently as Tuesday afternoon. Kalshi betters are split 50-50 on who will win the pivotal state of Pennsylvania, but give Harris the edge in Michigan and Trump the lead in Georgia and North Carolina.

The PredictIt market shows Harris with a 54% chance of victory, up from 44% one week ago. Trump maintains his advantage on Polymarket, which has him with a 55% chance of victory, but that is down from a 67% chance five days ago.

The Election Betting Odds website, which aggregates betting markets, shows Trump with a 51.6% chance of victory this week, to 47.9% for Harris. But that is down from one week ago, when Trump had a 62% chance, close to his highest level since President Joe Biden bowed out of the race.

The candidates are in an exact tie of 47.1% each in the RealClearPolitics aggregate of recent national polls. Harris has a one-point lead, 47.9% to 46.9%, in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate. Even so, FiveThirtyEight’s most recent simulations show Trump winning 53.0% of the tests, to 46.8% for Harris. In 0.2% of simulations, the candidates tie at 269 electoral votes each. If that is the result this week, the next president will be selected by the House of Representatives, something that has not happened since 1824.

Also Read: Harris Vs Trump: This Candidate Leading in Numerous Polls, Transforming Political Landscape

The aggregate of betting markets gives Republicans a 79% chance of winning the Senate and Democrats a 55% chance of winning the House of Representatives, which would be a swap from the current alignment. Simulations by FiveThirtyEight give Republicans a whopping 89.7% chance of taking the Senate, and favor the GOP to also win the House in 52.2% of simulations, disagreeing with the betting markets.

Why It Matters: With seven battleground states too close to call in recent polling, election observers have been looking to prediction markets for some indication of how things might go this week.

For the past few weeks, the prediction markets have reflected conventional wisdom that Trump maintained an advantage. But the tide may be turning.

The presidential race remains too close to call, and that is reflected in the shifting data from prediction markets as well as the very tight national polls.

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