DraftKings Offers $10K In Prizes For 2024 Election Predictions: Harris, Trump Swing State Performance Among Key Questions

Sportsbook DraftKings Inc DKNG doesn't offer legalized betting on U.S. elections yet, but is offering a $10,000 prediction contest to U.S. users ahead of the 2024 presidential election.

Here's a look at the questions and payouts. With the following all having the multiple choice options of Donald Trump, Kamala Harris or Another Candidate:

• Who will win the election?
• Who will win Florida?
• Who will win Michigan?
• Who will win Pennsylvania?
• Who will win Wisconsin?
• Who will win Arizona?
• Who will win Nevada?
• Who will win Minnesota?
• Who will win New Hampshire?
• Who will win North Carolina?
• Who will win Georgia?
• Who will win Virginia?

Here are the remaining questions in the contest and the possible answers:

• How many electoral votes will the winner gain? 269-280, 281-290, 291-300, 301-310, 311 or more
• Which state will have the smallest margin of victory? Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Georgia, Virginia, Any Other State
• Will the winner of the electoral vote also win the popular vote? Yes, No

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DraftKings previously launched a prediction contest for the 2024 presidential debate between Trump and Joe Biden.

It’s back with a contest that offers choices on several of the most important state markets that will likely determine the outcome. The seven swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin represent 93 electoral college votes in the 2024 election.

In 2020, Trump won North Carolina, but Biden won the other six swing states, flipping Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

This year, Trump is expected to win at least 219 electoral college votes, according to 270towin. Harris is expected to win at least 226 electoral college votes. The remaining 93 votes will come from the swing states — all seven are considered toss-ups.

Per 270, Republican-leaning Florida voted for Trump in the last two elections. New Hampshire is leaning toward Harris, and has voted for a Democratic candidate in the last five straight presidential elections.

Minnesota is considered to be leaning toward Harris and has voted for a Democratic candidate in the last four straight presidential elections.

One of the seven swing states is likely to have the smallest margin of victory for that question in the contest, with Nevada and Michigan often considered closer to 50/50 in election polls than the other states.

There are only five presidential elections where the winner of the electoral college vote lost the popular vote (1824, 1876, 1888, 2000, 2016). The 2016 election saw Trump win, but Hillary Clinton took the popular vote.

Harris is favored to win the popular vote, but prediction markets and sportsbooks list her odds to win the electoral college at lower than Trump. So that question could come down to whether a contestant believes Trump or Harris will win the electoral college.

For the electoral college votes total, the 2020 election was won by Biden 306 to 232 and the 2016 election was won by Trump 304 to 227. Both of these wins would fall into the 301 to 310 range. A closer election is forecasted by many election polls.

Contest Payouts

The 2024 election prediction contest has over 71,000 entries at the time of writing and will pay out prizes to the top 1,690 entries. The payouts will be made with DK Dollars, which are account credits that can be used in daily fantasy and betting markets.

Here are the contest payouts:

• 1^st: $500
• 2^nd through 5^th: $100 each
• 6^th through 10^th: $50 each
• 11^th through 20^th: $25 each
• 21^st through 70^th: $10 each
• 71^st through 1,690^th: $5 each

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