Prediction Markets Swing Back To Trump, But Data Analysts Say It's Too Close To Call

Donald Trump has regained his advantage over Kamala Harris in online prediction markets on the final day before the election, but FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver aren’t so sure.

What Happened: Harris moved ahead of Trump on the Kalshi betting market over the weekend, but as of Monday afternoon, Kalshi wagerers are giving Trump a 54% chance of victory, expecting Trump to win in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, with Harris carrying Michigan and Wisconsin. But Kalshi betters also say there is a 75% chance that Harris will win the national popular vote.

On Polymarket, Trump is seen with a 58% chance of victory. Only PredictIt is anticipating a Harris victory, with her 54% chance among its users unchanged since Sunday. Across the prediction sites, Nevada and Pennsylvania are expected to be the closest states, with Trump expected to carry Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, and Harris expected to win in Michigan and Wisconsin.

The Election Betting Odds website, an aggregator of betting markets, shows Trump with a 54.8% chance of victory, up from 51.6% on Sunday.

Also Read: 2024 Election Stakes: Potential Sweeps, Split Outcomes In Congressional, Presidential Races

The somewhat comfortable odds for Trump on Kalshi and Polymarket, and for Harris on PredictIt, are not reflected in the latest data projections. FiveThirtyEight‘s latest data-driven simulations show Trump winning 51.8% of the tests, to 48.0% for Harris. Silver, in his Silver Bullet newsletter, is even less certain, giving Trump a 50.2% chance of victory to Harris’ 49.2%.

Why It Matters: Prediction markets that have generally favored Donald Trump moved away from him over the weekend, but now are shifting back, though not as strongly. This indicates late shifts in momentum in an election that is expected to be decided by the narrowest of margins.

FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver, relying on polling numbers and other data gleaned from trends and past campaigns, are essentially calling the race a toss-up.

The presidential race remains too close to call, and may continue to be so long into Election Night.

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