The tiny town of Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, cast its votes for president just after midnight as per longstanding tradition, and the results there were the same as polls and predictions across the nation: The race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is a tie.
What Happened: Harris and Trump each received three votes in the town just south of the Canadian border. That’s not much different than Nate Silver‘s final analysis in his Silver Bullet newsletter, which gives Harris a 50.015% chance of victory, with Trump with a 49.648% chance and a 0.337% chance of an Electoral College tie.
FiveThirtyEight’s data-driven simulations show Harris winning 50.3% of the tests to Trump’s 49.5% chance, with a 0.2% chance of a tie. Only The Economist’s model shows anything other than a coin-toss race: Its model had a 50-50 split yesterday, but in its final run, shows a 56% chance of a Harris victory.
Several political analysis websites made final predictions within the past 24 hours, and they all expect Harris wins as well, though mostly by very tight Electoral College margins. CNalysis predicts Harris winning with 308 electoral votes to Trump’s 230, and Elections Daily predicts a 292-246 Harris win. The Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics sees a 276-262 Harris win, while Split Ticket has Harris winning with the narrowest possible margin, 270-268. That scenario comes if Harris wins the “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and Trump wins the remaining swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina.
Also Read: 2024 Election Stakes: Potential Sweeps, Split Outcomes In Congressional, Presidential Races
But as of 9:30 a.m. ET on Election Day, the betting markets do not agree. On Kalshi, where Harris briefly took the lead over the weekend, bettors give Trump a 59% chance of victory, and Polymarket wagerers give Trump a 62% chance. Even PredictIt, where Harris was showing a 54% chance of winning on Monday, now gives Trump a 51% chance. Robinhood‘s presidential market has Trump at 58%.
Why It Matters: The final calls from Silver and FiveThirtyEight show rare late agreement between the two data-crunching sites, since Silver has generally been more bearish on Harris. But both have concluded that the race is essentially a tie.
The agreement in the four election experts’ predictions may give the Trump campaign pause, but even in most of these cases, a shift of a state or two could change the result.
The betting markets have been more favorable to Trump throughout the race, but his late gains on Harris indicate continued doubt among bettors that she can pull off a win.
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