4% 2-Year? - Tuesday Market Update

Good Morning Everyone!

Hedge Fund leverage is near all-time lows and retail investment accounts have record cash. Sounds like we’re closer to stock market bottom than top.

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Prices as of 4 pm EST, 9/19/22; % YTD

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MARKET UPDATE

S&P

• Sitting on 3900-support ahead of FOMC meeting tomorrow

• Decision at 2 p.m. tomorrow

10yr 3.5% highest level since 2011

2 yr 3.9% highest level since 2007

• Only 16% of the S&P 500 stocks have dividend yields higher than the 2-year Treasury

• Lowest since 2006

US$ 109.7

C$ 75

Crude 85 flat

• International Energy Agency called for a global ban on petrol and diesel cars by 2035

• Electric cars are currently 1% of global car sales

• The IEA says this needs to increase to 20-25% by 2030.  

Ford F

• Cuts Q3 guide on shortages and inflation

• Ford expects to end Q3 with over $2 billion worth of vehicles (40-45 vehicles) awaiting parts, pushing profit to Q4

• Supply chain tightness not over yet

• Ford announced based on recent negotiations, inflation-related supplier costs will run higher in Q3

Earnings: None

CRYPTO UPDATE

Nasdaq’s big crypto push

• New Nasdaq Digital Assets unit

  • Run by former Gemini employee

• Offer custody services for BTC BTC/USD and ETH ETH/USD to institutional investors

• Competing with Coinbase, Anchorage Digital, Bit Go, etc.

• Open to exploring partnerships and deal opportunities

SEC charges influencer over unregistered 2018 ICO (initial coin offering)

• ICO charge is not the big story

• SEC’s language suggests it believes ALL Ethereum transactions fall under its purview

• “Saying that enables [the SEC] to characterize doing business on the Ethereum blockchain, as doing business on a US securities exchange” - Brian Fyre (University of Kentucky law professor)

Bitcoin supply

• Supply held by long-term holders (HODLers) reaches new ATH at 13.62 million

• HODL: 65% of Bitcoin’s supply hasn’t moved in at least a year:

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