Earnings Reactions Are Upside-down

Inflation was out of control, interest rates soared, bonds screamed caution and a recession seemed imminent. Yet, here we are, 20 months later with the S&P 500's bear market nearing a full recovery, just 260 points short. Talk about market resilience!

Market

Prices as of 4 pm EST, 7/24/23

Macro

As it turns out, the honor system doesn’t work in the banking sector.


Private sector business activity expanded at the slowest pace since February in July.

  • Manufacturing activity increased more than expected but remains in contraction.

  • Services missed estimates but continue expanding, albeit at its slowest pace since February.

  • Price pressures, meanwhile, are still a cause for concern (particularly in services):

S&P Global

Stocks

Here’s something you don’t see every day (or, ever)…

  • Stocks that beat earnings estimates are underperforming those that miss.

  • That’s right: beats are getting punished more so than misses.

  • In BofA data going back to 2000, this is the first such earnings reaction.

Bank of America


Many headlines over the past 24 hours claim Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson has thrown in the towel.

Morgan Stanley

Energy

WTI crude closed above its 200-day moving average yesterday for the first time since late August.

  • US oil prices now sit at the highest since April.

  • Driving recent gains: tight supplies, Chinese stimulus, and a weaker dollar.

Earnings

Yesterday’s highlights:

Cadence Design Systems (NASDAQ:CDNS): $1.22 EPS (vs. $1.18 expected), $976.58 million in sales (vs. $975.99M expected).

  • Demand for design software remains resilient amid a cyclical downturn for chipmakers.

  • While current quarter guidance disappointed, the company raised its full-year outlook above analysts’ estimates.


What we’re watching today:

Top Headlines

Crypto

Prices as of 4 pm EST, 7/24/23

Deals

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