For many months, former President Donald Trump has been the frontrunner to secure the nomination for the Republican party in the 2024 presidential election.
With several candidates dropping out of the race, a prediction market shows strong bets on Trump convincingly winning the New Hampshire Republican primary.
What Happened: Trump won the Iowa caucus with 51% of the vote, earning 20 delegates in the Republican primary race. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis ranked second with 21.2% of the vote, earning nine delegates. Nikki Haley ranked third with 19.1% of the vote and eight delegates.
Since the results of Iowa, Republican candidates DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy have dropped out of the race, making it a two-candidate race between Trump and Haley. Ramaswamy ranked a distant fourth place in Iowa. Both Ramaswamy and DeSantis have pledged support to Trump since dropping out.
While many people in the U.S. can't bet on the outcome of the 2024 election or upcoming state primaries, a cryptocurrency prediction market has odds and bets ready to go.
Calling itself the world's largest prediction market, Polymarket offers betting on items in categories such as politics, Middle East, sports, cryptocurrency, pop culture, business and science. On Polymarket, users deposit to Polygon MATIC/USD using USDC USDC/USD and can deposit with Ethereum ETH/USD.
On the platform, bettors can pick who they think will win the Republican race in New Hampshire on Tuesday, Jan. 23. Trump is currently listed with a 98% chance to win the state's primary on Tuesday. The platform offers Trump at 98 cents for yes, with a winning bet cashing out at $1.
Haley is listed at 1.9 cents, which means if she pulls the upset, bettors would see a huge payday at the $1 cash out.
The betting for the New Hampshire main race has attracted over $4 million in wagers.
Another bet available on the site for New Hampshire is Trump's winning margin in the state, which comes after he won Iowa by nearly 30 percentage points. Betting for the margin of victory stands at over $800,000 at the time of writing.
The current margin bets are as follows with how much the yes and no markets trade at.
>15% margin: 72 cents yes, 29 cents no
12.5% to 15%: 12 cents yes, 91 cents no
10.0% to 12.5%: 8 cents yes, 93 cents no
7.5% to 10.0%: 5 cents yes, 96 cents no
5.0% to 7.5%: 3.9 cents yes, 97.3 cents no
2.5% to 5.0%: 4 cents yes, 98.2 cents no
0% to 2.5%: 1.8 cents yes, 99.0 cents no
Trump Loses: 2.7 cents yes, 98.5 cents no
Related Link: Trump Vs. Biden: Former President Retakes Lead In 2024 Election Poll, But Sees Lower Support From Independent Voters
Why It's Important: Haley has been surging up the polls, but a third-place finish in Iowa may have slowed down momentum in the race. With DeSantis and Ramaswamy out of the race, New Hampshire could be a pivotal moment in the challenge against Trump.
A recent Emerson College poll published on Jan. 21 showed gains for both Trump and Haley from the previous poll done on Jan. 10 and from a poll in November 2023.
The results were as follows with the percentage of the vote on Jan. 21, Jan. 10 and in November 2023:
Trump: 50% (Jan. 21, 2024), 44% (Jan. 10, 2024), 49% (November 2023)
Haley: 35%, 28%, 18%
DeSantis: 8%, 7%, 7%
Trump leads Haley among Republican voters with 65% versus 23%. Haley leads the way in the vote from Independent voters at 47% to 33%. The Emerson College poll suggests a margin of victory right at the 15% level, which comes before DeSantis had dropped out. With DeSantis pledging support to Trump, it's likely his supporters could also add to Trump's lead.
Sports betting is legal in many states, but election betting remains closed off to bettors through legalized sportsbooks in the U.S.
DraftKings Inc DKNG CEO Jason Robins previously told Benzinga he hoped political betting on presidential elections would be allowed in the U.S. someday.
Polymarket could see increased attention for its political betting, which could become the biggest markets on the platform.
Betting on the Iowa caucus totaled over $4 million when factoring in the overall vote, who would place runner-up and the margin of victory. New Hampshire has already surpassed that and each new election could add to the total.
Betting on the overall 2024 presidential election is currently at $14.6 million with Trump the favorite at 54 cents and Joe Biden trailing at 37 cents.
The 2024 election betting has passed the prediction market for Bitcoin BTC/USD ETFs getting approved, which was previously one of the top betting markets of all time on Polymarket.
Photo: Shutterstock
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
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