Former President Donald Trump remains in control of the GOP nomination for the 2024 presidential election.
Trump has dominated early voting states and faces only one candidate left in the race.
What Happened: After recent primary wins in South Carolina and Michigan, both in convincing fashion, the odds for Trump to secure the GOP nomination and defeat Nikki Haley increased.
Benzinga previously shared that crypto bettors are placing wagers at prediction market Polymarket on whether Trump will win every state in the 2024 election primaries.
While that bet remains open and a potential win, bettors are now placing wagers concerning Super Tuesday (March 5), which will play a big role in Trump securing the nomination and winning all the states.
On Super Tuesday, Republicans in Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virigina will all go to the polls.
This represents the largest total of states and delegates available to the candidates, with around 36% of the 2024 primary delegates up for grabs.
A recent poll of voters in key Super Tuesday states saw Trump significantly ahead of Haley, with the former South Carolina governor failing to get more than 28% support in eight key Super Tuesday states.
Polymarket, which calls itself "the world's largest prediction market," offers betting on which state Trump will have the highest winning margin on Super Tuesday with multiple states to choose from.
The states and their odds are:
Alabama: 25%
Alaska: 3%
Arkansas: 23%
Colorado: 1%
Minnesota: 1%
North Carolina: 1%
Oklahoma: 42%
Tennessee: 8%
Texas: 1%
On Polymarket, users deposit to Polygon MATIC/USD using USDC USDC/USD and can deposit with Ethereum ETH/USD or from crypto accounts on Coinbase, Robinhood or PayPal, according to the company's guide.
Each betting market cashes out at $1 for the option that ends up being the winner. The percent odds above are similar to how many cents the markets are listed at, which means a bet on Oklahoma for example would be at around 42 cents and payout at $1 if correct, for a profit of around 58 cents for each 42-cent bet.
Related Link: Can't Bet On Trump Or Biden To Win 2024 Election In US? This Crypto Market Could Have You Covered
Why It's Important: Polymarket has attracted millions of dollars in wagers from bettors placing predictions on the 2024 election.
Recent Morning Consult polls of the Super Tuesday states showed Trump with the largest lead in the GOP race in the following states:
Alabama: 87% to 12%, 75-point lead
Oklahoma: 88% to 11%, 77-point lead
Tennessee: 81% to 18%, 63-point lead
Texas: 84% to 15%, 69-point lead
Based on that data, those could be the four states Trump is most likely to have the biggest wins on Super Tuesday.
Oklahoma was one of the Super Tuesday states that saw Trump win in the 2020 presidential election by the widest margin, beating Biden 65.4% to 32.3%.
Polymarket also has a market for which state will be Trump's worst on Super Tuesday with Utah, Vermont and Massachusetts the favorites at 50%, 31% and 11%, respectively.
Haley made it clear she planned to stay in the race until at least Super Tuesday. It was recently announced that some big donors were stopping their financing of Haley's campaign, which could be a major blow.
Polymarket offers a prediction market on which month Haley will drop out with March listed at 87% odds, April at 15% odds, May at 4% odds and June and July (before the Republican National Convention), both at 3%. Haley not dropping out before the RNC is listed at 4%.
Photo: Shutterstock
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
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