Ethereum ETF Approval Odds Plummet: '35% Isn't 0%, Still Possible'

The future of a long-awaited Ethereum ETH/USD exchange-traded fund (ETF) hangs in the balance as prominent analysts dramatically lowered their odds of approval by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before a critical May deadline.

Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, previously optimistic about a May approval, have significantly downgraded their estimations.

Balchunas now places the chances at just 35%, while Seyffart noted a stark contrast to the positive sentiment surrounding Bitcoin ETF approvals.

Balchunas has adjusted the odds of an Ethereum ETF approval by the May deadline to 35%, a notable decrease from previous expectations.

Despite a personal belief in the merits of approval, Balchunas noted the absence of positive indicators that were present ahead of the Bitcoin ETF approval.

"Note: 35% isn't 0%, still possible, and long-term we think it will happen," he added, maintaining a glimmer of hope for the future.

Seyffart echoed this sentiment, observing that the current cycle for the Ethereum ETF feels markedly different from that of the Bitcoin ETF, with diminishing optimism as the deadline approaches.

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"We're ~73 days from the deadline and there really seems to be little to no movement," Seyffart said.

Jake Chervinsky, Chief Legal Officer at Variant Fund and a vocal advocate for Ethereum, expressed disappointment at the prospect of the ETF not being approved.

He outlined several reasons for his skepticism, including the SEC's general disposition towards cryptocurrency, political pressures, and specific concerns about spot/futures correlation.

Chervinsky's analysis suggests that the SEC is preparing for a potential denial rather than working towards approval. "I’m just saying that general sentiment in this early-mid bull market is overestimating the chance of approval given all of the political and strategic factors weighing against," he stated.

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