Former President Donald Trump‘s chances of getting elected have increased to 55%, up from 51% four days ago, according to a market on prediction market platform Polymarket.
What Happened: According to the market, Trump’s 55% puts him firmly ahead of current President Joe Biden‘s 40%.
Former First Lady Michelle Obama, who has not indicated plans to run for the presidency, has a 3% chance according to the poll. Independent Robert Kennedy Jr. is given a 2% chance, while Vice President Kamala Harris has a 1% probability.
The market has seen almost $130 million traded, with the Trump and Biden outcomes account for roughly $15 million in trading volume each.
However, Joe Biden remains the firm favorite to win the popular vote, with market participants giving him a 60% chance, compared to Trump’s 32%. It’s important to note that winning the popular vote doesn’t necessarily mean winning the election.
Polymarket, which has risen in popularity for allowing bets on the outcomes of various political, sports and entertainment-related events, recently raised a $70 million Series B round with participation from Peter Thiel and Vitalik Buterin.
Why It Matters: The increasing lead comes as policymakers consider a potential major policy shift towards the cryptocurrency industry.
Trump has said that “if you’re pro-crypto, you better vote Trump,” and has criticized the regulatory approach of the Biden administration.
Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart had updated their probability of an Ethereum ETH/USD ETF approval from 25% to 75% on Monday, saying that the SEC “could be doing a 180 on this (increasingly political issue).”
Trump’s pivot has prompted industry experts like Uniswap CEO Hayden Adams to warn Democrats about the consequences of dropping the ball on crypto policy, saying “It's a level miscalculation from the Biden camp thinking crypto will be irrelevant in the 2024 election and letting SEC + Warren wage total war—both in terms of voters and money.”
Read Next: $241M Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows On Monday Fuel Rally Above $70K
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