Crypto bettors are wagering on the outcome of former President Donald Trump‘s criminal trial in New York.
What Happened: There are several prediction markets related to the Trump trial. The twice-impeached ex-president faces 34 criminal counts from allegations that he falsified business records — charges punishable by up to four years in prison.
Polymarket, touted as the world's largest prediction market, asks if Trump will be found guilty in the hush money case before the 2024 presidential election.
The market shows a 76% chance of Trump being found guilty. Over $77,000 has been bet on the market.
In April, the market stood at over 80%. This suggests fewer bettors see the trial proving Trump was guilty.
Another prediction market asks if Trump will be sent to jail before the 2024 presidential election. Over $860,000 has been bet on the market. The market sees only a 14% chance that Trump would be put in jail before election day.
If Trump is found guilty on any charges, he faces up to four years in prison for each charge. It would be up to Judge Juan Merchan to decide on sentencing.
An appeal by Trump's team could also push the trial outcome and sentencing, potentially past the election.
A similar prediction market asks if Trump will be found guilty of any felony, in the hush money case or otherwise, ahead of the 2024 presidential election. The market shows a 71% chance of Trump being found guilty. Over $116,000 has been bet on the market.
It would be up to Judge Juan Merchan to decide on sentencing for the hush money trial. An appeal by Trump's team could also push the trial outcome and sentence out, potentially past the election.
The 12-person jury will begin deliberating on the case on Wednesday and render a verdict. The potential outcome from the jury includes finding Trump guilty on all counts, finding Trump guilty on some counts, or finding Trump not guilty on all counts.
If the jury can not reach a verdict, they will return to the judge to receive new instructions and attempt again, setting up the potential for a hung jury outcome.
Why It's Important: A recent CBS News poll saw 56% of respondents say Trump was definitely guilty or probably guilty of falsifying business records related to hush money payments made to adult actress Stormy Daniels.
While this represents a majority of Americans polled, the 12-member jury will have to come to a unanimous decision in the trial for Trump to be found guilty on any charges.
Polymarket offers betting on items in categories such as politics, sports, cryptocurrency, pop culture and more. On Polymarket, users deposit to Polygon MATIC/USD using USDC USDC/USD and can deposit with Ethereum ETH/USD.
One of the top markets remains the 2024 presidential election, which has attracted over $140 million in wagers.
The market shows Trump with a 56% chance of winning the 2024 presidential election, according to bettors. President Joe Biden has a 37% chance of being re-elected.
Another top political prediction market centers on who Trump will select to be his running mate.
Read Next: Vitalik Buterin, Peter Thiel Back Crypto Prediction Market Polymarket With $70M Funding
Image: Midjourney
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
Comments
Trade confidently with insights and alerts from analyst ratings, free reports and breaking news that affects the stocks you care about.
