The first 2024 presidential debate featured Joe Biden and Donald Trump. A planned second debate on Tuesday, Sept. 10 could feature Trump taking on a different candidate, based on the reaction of voters, political analysts and Democratic Party leadership.
What Happened: A poll named Trump the winner of the first debate, which aired on Warner Bros. Discovery WBD-owned CNN.
Biden struggled to get points across or speak clearly throughout the 90-minute event.
For months, there have been calls for the Democratic Party to turn to another candidate instead. While incumbents often face minimal competition in primaries, which was the case in the 2024 election, Biden's age has been a major concern for the party and voters.
After Thursday’s debate and on Friday morning, names like Hillary Clinton, Michelle Obama and Gavin Newsom were trending in the news and on social media as possible replacements for Biden.
The 25th Amendment, which refers to presidential succession if the Commander-in-Chief is removed from office, was also trending on social media.
The big question now is: Who could replace Biden as the Democratic candidate to take on Trump in the 2024 presidential election in less than five months?
Biden has won the pledged delegates from states in the 2024 election. The 81-year-old candidate would have to withdraw for the conversation to replace him to begin. And his campaign has already made it known that he doesn't plan on dropping out.
That means it would take convincing from someone who could persuade Biden to make the move.
"Of course he's not dropping out," Biden campaign spokesperson Lauren Hitt said, as reported by the Associated Press.
The Democratic National Committee starts its convention Aug. 19, which would represent a possible deadline for Biden to step aside.
If Biden does choose to step aside, Vice President Kamala Harris would not automatically become the Democratic nominee despite being his running mate. The committee would be tasked with voting on a new candidate.
The Potential Replacements: One of the leading candidates to replace Biden as the Democratic nominee is California Gov. Gavin Newsom.
Newsom did not run against Biden in the primary, but is considered a potential future presidential candidate.
Newsom was already asked if he was ready to replace Biden on Thursday night, as reported by Politico. In an interview with MSNBC, Newsom told Democrats not to panic.
"We've got to have the back of this president. You don't turn back because of one performance. What kind of party does that?" Newsom said, as shared by ABC10.
Another potential replacement is Vice President Harris. The vice president has fended off questions about Biden's age for months. Harris also made known she would be ready to take over if Biden was unable to fulfill his presidential duties.
Former First Lady Michelle Obama is another name that trends as a potential presidential candidate but has not shown interest in running.
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, considered a rising star within the party, has also been mentioned as a potential candidate.
So far, she has not explicitly stated interest in the presidency as she completes her term as the state's leader.
Other names like former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren and Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg have also been floated as potential replacements for Biden.
Clinton tweeted her support for Biden on Friday morning.
"The choice in this election remains very simple. It's a choice between someone who cares about you — your rights, your prospects, your future — versus someone who's only in it for himself. I'll be voting Biden," Clinton said.
In February 2024, Benzinga polled readers to see how important a vice-presidential nominee was with some potential ticket ideas if Biden chose to select someone other than Harris, including Republican Nikki Haley. The poll results for who voters would select at the time were:
- Joe Biden/Nikki Haley: 23.9%
- Joe Biden/Kamala Harris: 8.9%
- Donald Trump/Nikki Haley: 11.1%
- Donald Trump/Ron DeSantis: 56.1%
A February 2024 Rasmussen Reports survey found that 48% of Democratic voters said they would support the Democratic Party finding a new candidate to replace Biden.
When asked to pick a replacement, the survey respondents voted the following:
- Michelle Obama: 20%
- Kamala Harris: 15%
- Hillary Clinton: 12%
- Gavin Newsom: 11%
- Gretchen Whitmer: 9%
- None of the Above: 27%
- Not Sure: 6%
Betting Odds: During the debate, the odds for Biden to serve as the next president significantly fell and Trump's lead grew on prediction markets like Polymarket.
Biden was listed with a 21% chance of winning the 2024 election on Polymarket with Trump ranked first at 64%.
On Polymarket, users can bet on political events with cryptocurrency like Polygon MATIC/USD, USDC USDC/USD and Ethereum ETH/USD.
Bettors can also predict who will be the Democratic nominee in the 2024 election. Ahead of the election, Biden had a 91% chance to win the nomination based on the prediction market. Here are where things stand Friday:
- Joe Biden: 65%
- Gavin Newsom: 10%
- Kamala Harris: 9%
- Pete Buttigieg: 5%
- Hillary Clinton: 5%
- Dean Phillips: 2%
A betting market exists for whether Biden will drop out of the race. Ahead of the debate, the market stood at 19%.
On Friday, the market stood at 44%, hitting an all-time high since the prediction pool was opened in September 2023.
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Images sourced from Shutterstock; Edited with Canva.
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
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