Following a contentious debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the Democratic Party is grappling with uncertainty over the party's candidate in the 2024 presidential election.
Election polls are now showing that Vice President Kamala Harris may have a better shot than Biden at beating Trump.
What Happened: With calls to replace Biden as the presidential candidate with someone like Harris, Michelle Obama, California Gov. Gavin Newsom or Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, the current president appears ready to stay in the race.
New data from polling company FiveThirtyEight shows that Harris may have the better chance of beating Trump after the first debate saw many voters question Biden's ability to continue leading the country.
Trump's margin in national polls is up 2 percentage points after the debate, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Harris would be one of the most likely replacements if Biden drops out of the race according to many experts, with factors like name familiarity, a short time period before the election, and ability to obtain campaign funds being crucial.
Based on data from over a dozen polls that also asked voters on a potential Harris vs. Trump matchup, FiveThirtyEight estimates that Harris would have a better shot at beating Trump, including in several swing states.
The polling company gives Harris a 35% chance of winning the 2024 election based on national polls, compared to a 35% chance for Biden. While both trail Trump by a significant margin, Harris could have the better statistical chance based on polls.
One key to the 2024 election could be the swing states. FiveThirtyEight determined that Biden and Harris each fare better in three of six swing states tracked, as shown below:
- Arizona: 31% chance Biden, 27% chance Harris
- Georgia: 27% chance Biden, 30% chance Harris
- Michigan: 41% chance Bidden, 43% chance Harris
- Nevada: 31% chance Biden, 42% chance Harris
- Pennsylvania: 40% chance Biden, 33% chance Harris
- Wisconsin: 41% chance Biden, 31% chance Harris
FiveThirtyEight also determined that Harris would do better than Biden in the popular vote, with a 0.6 point advantage, with both candidates trailing Trump.
Betting Odds Flip: Since the first presidential debate, Trump has become a heavier betting favorite with sportsbooks and prediction markets.
Ahead of the first 2024 presidential debate, Trump led at Bet365 with betting odds of -150 with Biden trailing at +162, as reported by Covers.
After the debate, Trump's lead jumped to -188 with Biden trailing at +350 and other Democratic candidates slowing gaining with reports of potential tension in the Democratic Party.
As of Friday, Harris has not only passed the odds of Biden, but is now two times more likely to win the presidency and the Democratic nomination.
Here are the current odds at Bet365 as reported by Covers for the 2024 presidential election:
- Donald Trump: -175
- Kamala Harris: +400
- Joe Biden: +800
- Michelle Obama: +1,200
- Gavin Newsom: +1,600
- Gretchen Whitmer: +2,000
Here are the odds to win the Democratic nomination:
- Kamala Harris: +100
- Joe Biden: +200
- Michelle Obama: +750
- Gavin Newsom: +900
Over at prediction market Polymarket, which calls itself the largest prediction market in the world, Harris has also passed Biden.
The prediction market for the 2024 election lists Trump with a 61% chance of winning, followed by Harris at 17% and Biden at 13%.
The prediction market for the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination on Polymarket shows Harris as the favorite at 41% followed by Biden at 38%. “Other” candidate (which includes Whitmer) ranks third at 11%, followed by Obama at 7% and Newsom at 4%.
Bettors on Polymarket can use USDC USDC/USD, Polygon MATIC/USD and Ethereum to wager on outcomes, with winning bets paying out $1 in each market.
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