As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, forecasting platform Polymarket indicates a neck-and-neck contest between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
What Happened: According to Polymarket’s data, Trump holds a slight edge in several key swing states.
In Georgia, which carries 16 electoral votes, Trump is favored at 59% to Harris’s 41%. Arizona, with its 11 electoral votes, shows Trump at 55% compared to Harris’s 45%. Nevada, though smaller with 6 electoral votes, also leans towards Trump at 51% to 49%.
However, the race tightens significantly in other battleground states.
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Pennsylvania, a major prize with 19 electoral votes, has Trump barely ahead at 51% to Harris’s 49%. The picture shifts in Wisconsin and Michigan, where Harris takes the lead. Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) shows Harris at 56% to Trump’s 44%, while Michigan (15 electoral votes) gives Harris a commanding 60% to 40% advantage.
These Polymarket predictions contrast somewhat with a recent Fox News poll of Sun Belt swing states, which shows an even tighter race.
The Fox poll has Harris and Trump virtually tied in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, with Harris holding a slim 50% to 49% lead overall in these states.
Veteran forecaster Nate Silver predicts Kamala Harris has a 97% chance of winning, provided she wins North Carolina. Trump currently holds a 60% to 40% lead in the election odds in the Tar Heel State, which has last voted Blue in 2008.
Polymarket has been a major beneficiary of election-related interest, with over $400 million in trading volume in August alone. Crypto market participants are watching the race anxiously, as Donald Trump is widely believed to be the crypto-friendlier candidate of the two.
What’s Next: As election forecasts fluctuate, the intersection of politics and technology is becoming increasingly apparent.
Benzinga’s upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19 is poised to explore how blockchain and cryptocurrency technologies might impact future elections and political fundraising.
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