The outcome of the 2024 election could have a significant impact on Bitcoin's BTC/USD price, with drastically different scenarios depending on whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris emerges victorious, according to a Bernstein report.
What Happened: A Trump victory could propel Bitcoin to new heights, potentially reaching $80,000 to $90,000 by the end of Q4, The Block reported, citing Bernstein’s analysis. They describe Bitcoin as a "Trump trade," citing the Republican candidate's vocal support for cryptocurrencies and his pledge to make the U.S. “the bitcoin and crypto capital of the world.”
In contrast, a Harris win could see Bitcoin retreating to the $30,000 to $40,000 range, levels last seen when spot Bitcoin ETFs were introduced. The analysts note that Harris has not addressed crypto in her speeches or policy statements, contributing to the uncertainty surrounding her potential stance on the industry.
Current prediction markets show Trump leading Harris by a narrow margin, with a 52% chance of victory compared to Harris’ 47%. However, the analysts caution that elections remain difficult to predict accurately.
Why It Matters: Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra, and Sanskar Chindalia, the authors of the report, point out that while the crypto industry has attempted to reach out to both political sides, it has received “more warmth” from the Trump camp.
The report suggests that a crypto-friendly election outcome and a positive regulatory environment are not currently priced into the market.
The analysts argue that the regulatory environment has been challenging for crypto in recent years, with actions against major companies like Coinbase and Uniswap eroding trust and pushing the industry into partisan debates.
Bernstein has previously set ambitious long-term price targets for Bitcoin, including $200,000 by the end of 2025 and $1 million by the end of 2033. As the election approaches, the crypto community will be watching closely to see how political developments might shape the future of digital assets.
What’s Next: The influence of Bitcoin as an institutional asset class is expected to be thoroughly explored at Benzinga’s upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.
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This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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