Donald Trump‘s viral claim that Haitian immigrants are “eating cats” was one of several long-shot events that political traders successfully predicted to happen at Tuesday’s presidential debate.
What Happened: The claim, which Trump made in response to Vice President Kamala Harris questioning the size and engagement at his rallies, almost immediately became a viral meme on social media:
The claim was debunked by debate moderator David Muir as well as by Reuters fact checkers, among others.
Traders on prediction market platform Polymarket were able to speculate on a mention of “cat” prior to the debate, essentially putting a price on the likelihood of the former president leaning into the claim.
Over $115,000 were traded at a closing price of around 30 cents to the dollar. Over $275,000 at a closing price of 28 cents to the dollar were traded on a mention of Springfield, the city in Ohio where the false rumors originated.
Thus, savvy traders who were in tune with what drives Trump’s thinking — he had repeatedly shared cat-related AI art on his Truth Social account — netted a gain of 200% to 300%. For comparison, Trump did not mention Tesla CEO Elon Musk, which traded at a similar price of around 30 cents.
But that was not the only unlikely event traders predicted.
Speculation about a handshake, the first at a debate since 2016, netted traders a similar profit of over 300%.
Trump did not appear inclined to shake Harris’s hand at their first personal meeting, but the Vice President set the tone by meeting her opponent behind his podium to introduce herself with a handshake.
The two also exchanged a handshake at a 9/11 memorial service on Wednesday, which may adjust traders’ expectations at a possible second debate.
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Why It Matters: Polymarket’s record trading volume of over $400 million in August helped it to national brand recognition. The prediction market platform, backed by venture capitalist Peter Thiel and advised by pundit and speculator Nate Silver, even earned a mention on CNN.
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin is another long-standing proponent of prediction markets and their informational value.
Over $875 million have been traded on the winner of the 2024 presidential election, dwarfing the volume on competitor sites like PredictIt and Betfair.
Some may see prediction markets as a pure speculation or a thinly-veiled version of gambling.
But successful traders like Polymarket whale Domer show that is it possible to make a living by trading politics.
There may also be something to the claims of pricing information by allowing to speculate on events: a mention of “cat” at Donald Trump’s rally in Arizona on Thursday is priced at 80 cents to the dollar. Traders are confident the former President will double down on his claims when addressing his base — and we will find out shortly whether they are right about that.
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