Trump Vs. Harris: 2024 Election Betting Odds Show Vice President Maintains Lead As Race Nears One-Month Mark

Betting odds between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remain almost identical in the weeks since the Sept. 10 debate and as the countdown to 2024 election day nears one month.

What Happened: Election polls show a close race between Trump and Harris, particularly in key swing states.

Betting odds and prediction markets have shown Harris in the lead for the race to the White House since the presidential debate between the two candidates and she continues to hold the betting lead.

The betting odds are near even between the two candidates at Bet365, as reported by Covers. These betting odds translate to around a 55.6% chance of Harris winning the election and implied odds of 50% of Trump winning the election — just to illustrate how close the election remains.

The latest betting odds are the same as they were two weeks ago, which comes with Harris still showing strength in election polls.

For comparison, Trump was the favorite at odds of -125 and Harris was listed at +100 back in August.

Polymarket, which calls itself the world's largest prediction market, offers betting on items in categories such as politics, sports, cryptocurrency, pop culture and more.

The Polymarket 2024 election outcome winner market has over $989 million in wagers placed and continues to be one of the most popular markets. The current odds show Harris with a 51% chance of winning and Trump at a 48% chance of winning.

On Polymarket, users can deposit funds using USDC USDC/USD via the Polygon MATIC/USD network, or directly from a crypto account with Ethereum ETH/USD. In each betting market, the winning option pays out at $1.

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Why It's Important: Trump has mostly been in the lead on Polymarket, with Harris remaining close and sometimes taking the lead. Trump held a lead of eight points ahead of the debate before the two candidates ended up tied after the debate and shortly after.

Two weeks ago, Trump still had a lead on Polymarket, but saw the lead quickly disappear. After Harris took a stronger lead on Polymarket, Trump saw his odds come roaring back.

A second assassination attempt on Trump in mid-September didn't improve the former president's odds. This may be a slight surprise to those who have followed the betting odds. An assassination attempt on Trump in Pennsylvania led to the former president becoming a huge favorite at -250 with then presidential candidate Joe Biden at +500 and Harris at +800.

The odds remaining consistent over the past two weeks could also be a surprise after Trump recently said he doesn't plan on running in the 2028 election if he loses to Harris in the 2024 election.

"I don't see that at all. I think that, hopefully, we're going to be successful," Trump said of the 2024 election.

Following the first presidential debate, Trump had odds of -175, with Harris at +400 topping the odds of Biden at +800 before his withdrawal from the race.

In late June, Trump was listed with odds of -188 with Biden at +350 and Harris significantly behind at +2,200.

Keep in mind that back in January 2021, it was Harris who was the favorite to win the 2024 election with odds of +350 based on the plan that Biden would not run for re-election. Biden and Trump trailed Harris at the time at odds of +400 and +650, respectively.

Harris has closed the gap between the Democratic and Republican parties and her debate performance now made it more likely that she could win the 2024 election.

A recent Morning Consult poll showed Harris with a six-point lead over Trump among nationally registered voters who are likely to vote in the upcoming election.

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