As the 2024 U.S. presidential election draws closer, former President Donald Trump has opened up a substantial lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, according to prediction market traders.
What Happened: Polymarket shows Trump with a 61.3% chance of winning the presidency compared to Harris’s 38.6%, a difference of 22.7 percentage points.
The gap between Polymarket and US-based prediction market Kalshi increased after Trump continuds his unconventional campaign strategy, recently making headlines by working a shift at a McDonald’s drive-thru in Bucks County, Pennsylvania. For comparison, Trump is a 57% favorite on Kalshi.
The former president was seen serving customers and operating the fry cooker, a move that is aimed at resonating with working-class voters.
During his McDonald’s stint, Trump referenced Harris’s past work experience at the fast-food chain, saying, “I’m running against somebody who said she worked at McDonald’s.”
A closer look at the electoral map reveals key battleground states that could decide the election.
Polymarket traders see Trump in the lead in all swing states. The former President is the strongest favorite in Arizona, with a 70%:30% margin, while Michigan is the closest with a 56%:44%.
The division of electoral votes in these swing states will likely play a crucial role in determining the final outcome.
Also Read: ESMA Pushes For Stronger Crypto Regulations Under MiCA Framework
Why It Matters: As Trump's odds of winning the election continue to rise, the broader implications for the financial markets, particularly in the digital assets space, are becoming a focal point.
Trump’s rising odds have coincided with substantial betting activity on Polymarket.
Data analysis suggested that a single entity might be behind a massive $26 million bet on Trump's reelection, with coordinated betting activity raising concerns about possible manipulation of prediction markets.
According to an analysis by X user Fozzy Diablo, four accounts — Fredi9999, PrincessCaro, Michie, and Theo4 — have been placing large bets, leading to speculation about their motivations and impact on public sentiment.
While prediction markets are often viewed as a reflection of public sentiment, this coordinated activity has led some to question whether such substantial bets could influence perceptions of the election’s outcome.
The upcoming Benzinga Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19 will provide a timely platform for discussing how political developments, including the election, could shape the future of cryptocurrencies and digital finance.
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