Donald Trump's Election Odds Surge To 64% On Polymarket, 60% On Kalshi And Favorite In All Swing States

With just 14 days until the presidential election, former President Donald Trump's winning probability has surged to at least 60% on major prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi.

What Happened: Polymarket data shows Trump with a 63.3% chance of winning compared to Vice President Kamala Harris's 36.8%, marking a 26.5 percentage point difference. This is a notable jump from Trump's previous 61.3% to Harris's 38.6% on Monday.

Trump's odds reportedly surged after he made headlines for working a shift at McDonald's in Pennsylvania, a key battleground state where he currently holds a 62% win probability on Polymarket and 59% on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s odds also reflect a rise in Trump's chances, now at 60% compared to Harris's 40%. This marks a significant increase from the prior day, when Trump's odds stood at 57%.

Interestingly, Trump's rising odds come despite his recent cancellations of high-profile media appearances and debates, including his second debate with Harris, interviews with CNBC and NBC, and an NRA rally. While his campaign attributes the cancellations to scheduling conflicts, rumors are circulating about potential health issues or a calculated strategy on Trump’s part.

Also Read: Harris Vs. Trump: Vice President Edges Out Rival In Latest Poll, But Voters Favor Ex-President’s Stance On Economy And Immigration

Why It Matters: Trump's increasing odds are closely watched not just for their political implications but for their potential impact on financial markets, particularly in the digital assets space.

Betting activity on Polymarket has surged, with volumes hitting $717.9 million compared to Harris's $455 million. Notably, one of the largest bettors, Fredi9999, has invested $18.1 million, netting a profit of $2.7 million.

However, some critics, like Mark Cuban, argue that these betting odds are skewed by foreign money, as U.S. citizens are technically prohibited from betting on these platforms.

What’s Next: The upcoming Benzinga Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19 will provide a timely platform for discussing how political developments, including the election, could shape the future of cryptocurrencies and digital finance.

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• Amid Kamala Harris-Trump Polymarket Hype, CFTC Chair Wary Of Turning Into An ‘Election Cop’ — Wants Congress To Make Moves On Crypto And Election Betting

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