Donald Trump Leads, But Harris 'Field Goal Could Win the Game,' Says Analyst Who Thinks Prediction Market Are Trading Close To Where They Should

Jim Bianco, President of Bianco Research, addressed concerns about election betting market manipulation, stating that these markets are operating fairly and reflect accurate information.

What Happened: In a detailed thread on X on Wednesday, Bianco argued that election betting markets, such as Polymarket, PredictIt and Kalshi, are "trading close to where they should based on available information," and that they're "not manipulated."

He supported his claim by comparing data from betting markets with polling aggregators and election models, showing that Donald Trump is trading over 50% and has been trending upward for weeks. Bianco noted, "Volume is going geometric on the 3 largest betting markets," and predicts that "volume to double again before election day."

The analysis included data from RealClearPolitics, FiveThirtyEight and The Economist’s models, showing Trump with a slight lead. However, Bianco acknowledged that while national polls suggest Vice President Kamala Harris has a slight edge, it doesn’t necessarily translate into an Electoral College advantage.

Statistics: Polymarket shows Donald Trump has a 61% probability of winning the election, while Kalshi data indicates a 58.8% chance.

Also Read: Polymarket To Review User Base In Light Of Whales Betting Millions On Trump Election Win

Why It Matters: Using a football analogy, Bianco explained that Trump is “leading by less than 3 points” and “has the ball, making first downs” with his uptrend. However, he warned that Harris still has a shot: "If she can get the ball back, a field goal can win the game."

He also noted that while polls have underestimated Trump's support in past elections, it remains uncertain if this will happen again in 2024.

Bianco concluded by emphasizing that any discrepancy between the polls and betting markets would more likely result from unforeseen events than manipulation, akin to an unexpected upset in sports betting.

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• Donald Trump’s Election Odds Surge To 64% On Polymarket, 60% On Kalshi And Favorite In All Swing States

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