A French trader, who is among the largest bettors on the 2024 presidential election outcome on the prediction market Polymarket, said he made the trades to make money not due to a political agenda.
What Happened: A prediction market for the 2024 presidential election has attracted over $2.39 billion in wagers on prediction market Polymarket, with a French trader among several large "whales" backing Donald Trump.
The large bets on Trump have prompted questions on the integrity of the prediction market and questions on the identities of the accounts with the biggest wagers.
A French trader who called himself Théo said he has bet more than $30 million on Trump winning the 2024 presidential election and there is no political motivation or attempts to manipulate the betting markets.
"My intent is just making money," the trader told the Wall Street Journal.
The trader said he previously lived in the U.S. working as a trader for banks.
Large trades made by several Trump backers on the platform prompted an investigation by Polymarket, which revealed the $30 million bettor was of French nationality. The platform does not currently allow wagers from U.S. residents.
"Based on the investigation, we understand that this individual is taking a directional position based on personal views of the election," Polymarket said.
Théo said he placed his bets based on election polls and a belief that Trump's support is being underestimated. The trader spoke English with a slight accent during a Zoom call, according to the report.
"I know a lot of Americans who would vote for Trump without telling you that."
The trader said he looked at old polls from the 2016 and 2020 elections and realized that if Trump outperformed like he did in past polls he would beat Harris.
The trader confirmed to the Wall Street Journal he had been in contact with Polymarket's legal and compliance team. To prove his identity, the media outlet asked the trader to place a small wager on a prediction market for whether Taylor Swift would become pregnant in 2024, which he did and proved he was behind the Theo4 account.
Théo initially reached out to the Wall Street Journal after a report was published about Polymarket and the big bettors. The trader would not give his real name during the interview and the Wall Street Journal said they could not confirm all his comments, including the bets being made with his own money. The outlet could not rule out potential links between the trader and political organizations.
"I have absolutely no political agenda," the trader previously told the Wall Street Journal via email.
Théo, who was new to political betting, began placing several trades on Trump in August when Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris had near even odds on the prediction market. Three additional accounts were made to help get attractive prices on the exchange.
The trader said the reason for not sharing his true identity is due to his children and friends not knowing his wealth or how much he bet.
With $30 million at stake, the trader said he understands that he could lose big if Harris wins while describing the amount on Polymarket the majority of his liquid assets. If Trump wins, the trader could more than double the $30 million bet with around $80 million in potential winnings.
Along with bets on the overall election win, Théo has also placed wagers on Trump winning the popular vote and individual swing states.
The four "Trump whale" accounts represent around 25% of the Trump winning the Electoral College prediction contracts and around 40% of the Trump winning the popular vote prediction contracts according to Polymarket Analytics, the report said. The trader is unable to exit his large wagers without sending the price significantly lower due to the size of his bets.
The trader remains confident in Trump winning but knows that anything is possible.
"A surprise can always occur."
Did You Know?
- Congress Is Making Huge Investments. Get Tips On What They Bought And Sold Ahead Of The 2024 Election With Our Easy-to-Use Tool
What's Next: Election Day is set for Tuesday, Nov. 5 with the head-to-head matchup of Trump vs. Harris.
Election polls have been predicting one of the closest presidential elections in years with the key seven swing states likely to decide the outcome.
Prediction markets like Polymarket and sportsbooks have given the edge to Trump by a dominant amount in recent weeks.
After having even odds in early October, Trump saw his chance of winning on Polymarket hit around 67% several days ago, before falling back down.
At the time of writing, Trump is the favorite on Polymarket at 61.1% and Harris the underdog at 39.0%.
Polymarket allows users to deposit funds using USDC USDC/USD via the Polygon MATIC/USD network or directly from a crypto account with Ethereum ETH/USD. Winning wagers cash out at $1 per contract.
The 2024 presidential election may not be officially decided for days or weeks after Election Day. For the French trader and other bettors on Polymarket, the contracts won't pay out until the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC all declare the same election winner or until Inauguration Day on Jan. 20, 2025.
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