Pseudonymous prediction market trader ‘Redegen’ is predicting a Donald Trump presidency coupled with a popular vote win for Kamala Harris, going against his publicly shared position.
What Happened: Redegen on Sunday shared his “final forecast” for the U.S. presidential election, asserting that Polymarket is "systemically overweighting" Trump and "underweighting" Harris. Despite a prediction for Trump to win the electoral college, the trader has longed Kamala Harris, stating "Our data still points to a Trump presidency, but it's not wise to offload shares on Polymarket given the systemic overweighting."
Redegen's portfolio includes 9.2 million shares on Harris winning the popular vote and 2.6 million on her winning the presidency. The trader is now up over $1.2 million in unrealized profit on their position.
Also Read: Kamala Harris Gains Support From 866 VCs Representing $276 Billion in Assets
Why It Matters: Harris has recently seen a surge in online betting markets. Polymarket traders assign a 42% chance of winning the election, up from 36%, while Trump's odds have dropped from 66% to 58% over the past four days. Harris holds a 74% probability of winning the popular vote, compared to Trump's 26%. On U.S.-based prediction market Kalshi, the Vice President’s chances stand at 45%.
The news comes as renowned analysts predict former President Trump to prevail on Tuesday.
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