Polymarket's All-Time Leading Trader Bets Over $500,000 On Kamala Harris, Slams Nate Silver For Including 'Fake Poll' Data In Model

Professional politics trader ‘Domer’ on Sunday announced that he is accumulating a position on Vice President Kamala Harris to win the election.

What Happened: Domer’s investment thesis, which led him betting over $500,000 on Kamala Harris to win the presidency, the popular vote and the presidency and the state of Pennsylvania, is based on several factors:

• A surprising surge for Harris in Iowa’s Selzer poll, which he likened to an “alien landing.”
• A shift in Republican strategy, with increased early voting participation leading to “victory lapping” on social media.
• Despite Biden's low popularity, Republicans have faced setbacks in post-2020 elections, which Domer interprets as evidence of MAGA's declining appeal. Meanwhile, Donald Trump's favorability has climbed to around 45%, higher than in his previous campaigns, compared to around 40% and 42% in 2016 & 2020.

Also Read: Kamala Harris Gains Support From 866 VCs Representing $276 Billion in Assets

Domer highlighted that the takeaway of post-2020 elections is MAGA is "even less popular than unpopular Biden." The bettor is curious if Trump "has the secret elixir" to address the disagreement within his movement remains undecided.

The trader acknowledges that Donald Trump's favorability has climbed to around 45%, compared to around 40% and 42% in 2016 & 2020. Based on his analysis, Kamala Harris has a 55-60% chance of winning the presidency, despite the betting markets assuming a Trump victory.

However, he also slammed political pundit and statistician Nate Silver for including “fake poll” data in his model, which Domer cites as a reason for the gap between Silver’s and his own odds.

What’s Next: The influence of prediction markets is expected to be thoroughly explored at Benzinga’s upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.

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• Bitcoin Could Hit $90,000 If Trump Wins, Hold $50,000 Floor Under Harris: Bernstein

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