What The Stock Market's Super Bowl Indicator Says With A Rams Win

Rams fans aren't the only ones excited about Los Angeles' 23-20 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. According to the extremely non-scientific Wall Street Super Bowl indicator, the Rams victory is good news for investors as well.

What Is The Super Bowl Indicator? Historically, the S&P 500 has performed much better in years following Super Bowl victories by NFC (and former National Football League) teams than in years with champions from the AFC (and former American Football League).

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The Numbers: From 1967 to 2021, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 10.8% in years in which the NFC team wins the Super Bowl compared to an average gain of just 7.1% during years in which the AFC team wins.

In addition, the S&P 500 finished the year higher overall 79.3% of the years the NFC takes home the championship compared to only 65.4% of the years in which the AFC wins, according to LPL Financial.

The bad news for investors, of course, is that correlation is not always equal to causation when it comes to stock market indicators. Stocks have done just fine following recent AFC victories, including finishing the year higher following 10 out of the last 11 AFC Super Bowl wins.

In fact, in 2017, 2019 and 2020 — the last three years the AFC won the Super Bowl — the S&P 500 has finished the year up 19.4%, 28.9% and 16.3%, respectively.

Benzinga's Take: The Super Bowl indicator is a fun bit of Wall Street lore, but it's not meant to be taken particularly seriously given there's no rational reason why investors or the economy would prefer one conference over another. Like the game itself, it's more fun if you don't put too much money on who wins or loses.