The 2024 presidential election is around 22 months away but could heat up as a big topic in 2023. Three candidates currently lead the way in polls ahead of the next presidential election.
Here’s a look at one big factor that may decide who wins the Republican nomination:
What Happened: While a potential rematch of the 2020 election that saw Joe Biden defeat Donald Trump could be on the cards to decide the winner of the 2024 presidential election, several other options could emerge.
Biden and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis are expected to announce plans to run for president in 2024. Of the three leading candidates, only Trump has officially declared his intent to run.
Biden is seen as the front-running candidate for the Democrat party if he runs until more potential candidates are announced.
On the Republican side, Trump and DeSantis are expected to face off in a heated competition for the GOP nomination in a battle that could decide who would face Biden in a hypothetical matchup.
A new report from FiveThirtyEight takes a look at many leading national polls to find that DeSantis has an average of 48% support in a GOP head-to-head matchup against Trump, with the former president getting 43% of the votes.
Polls that let voters choose between Trump, DeSantis and at least one other Republican candidate have a much different outcome according to the report. In those polls, Trump commands a lead of 41% to 37% over DeSantis.
No other Republicans have announced intentions to challenge Trump or potentially DeSantis. Potential candidates include Nikki Haley, Larry Hogan, Mike Pence and Mike Pompeo, according to FiveThirtyEight.
The polls with three or more candidates are seeing names other than Trump and DeSantis get single-digit percentages, far off from the top two. But, they are taking away from DeSantis, it would appear.
Why It’s Important: The 2016 presidential election saw numerous candidates enter the race for the GOP nomination, which eventually went to Trump. There were over a dozen candidates when the race began, including the likes of John Kasich, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Chris Christie and others.
The first Republican presidential debate featured 10 candidates on stage with a secondary debate held for additional candidates.
Some credit Trump’s win to having so many candidates and not being unified. Trump bullied many of the candidates and was seen as a strong presence at the debates over others.
The polls suggest that Trump has a better chance of advancing in the Republican primaries as more candidates run, which could be bad news for DeSantis and anyone hoping Trump doesn’t get the GOP nomination again.
A recent poll conducted by Benzinga gave Biden a 60% edge over 40% for Trump in a hypothetical matchup in the 2024 election. A matchup between Biden and DeSantis was much closer with Biden getting 53% of the votes compared to 47%. In a hypothetical matchup of Trump and DeSantis in the primary, 55% voted for DeSantis compared to 45% for Trump.
If Trump does become president, it could be an interesting business case as he is expected to remain in control of Trump Media & Technology Group, a company that has a pending merger with Digital World Acquisition Corporation DWAC. This would mean the sitting president was in charge of the U.S. and also a publicly traded company at the same time.
Read Next: Exclusive: What Are The Issues Americans Consider Most Important Ahead Of 2024 Presidential Election
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
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