Florida's Largest City Just Elected A Democrat Mayor — What This Could Mean For The 2024 Presidential Election

The election of a Democratic mayor in Florida's largest city is sending a wave of optimism across the Democratic party nationwide.

The city of Jacksonville elected Donna Deegan, a former TV news anchor, on Tuesday, feeding hope to the possibility that the Sunshine State could tilt towards the Democrat candidate in the upcoming presidential election.

A recent poll released earlier this week put Biden ahead of Trump by 6% points in the event of an eventual showdown.

Alvin Brown, a Democrat, served as the city's mayor between 2011 and 2015, but he was the only other Democrat to sit in the role for the past 30 years.

With a population that scratches at 1 million inhabitants, Jacksonville, which is located in the northeast corner of the state, ranks as the most populous Florida city. Its metropolitan area is fourth by population, after Miami, Tampa and Orlando.

The election "not only puts Florida in play but lets donors know Florida has never really been red," said state Sen. Shevrin Jones to Politico.

Yet the win can be seen as only a small blue dot in a very red state. The state's legislature is still disproportionately Republican, with a supermajority of 70% of seats in both the House and the Senate. Both U.S. senators for Florida are Republican as well as a majority of U.S. representatives.

What Does It Mean For The 2024 Presidential Election?

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis achieved 59% of votes in a recent reelection, winning in most counties except for five. Paradoxically, DeSantis won 55% of votes in Jacksonville when elected Governor six months ago, winning over Democrat Charlie Crist by 12% of the electorate.

This sudden and unexpected shift is likely attributed to moderate Republicans and independents, who could have steered away from the GOP after the push of measures involving controversial topics like abortion and LGBTQ+ rights. Last month, DeSantis signed into law a bill banning abortion after the sixth week of pregnancy.

A very mediatized battle between the governor and media giant Walt Disney Co. DIS also touched upon sensitive issues, as the company allegedly broke the state's "Don’t Say Gay" law, which had been pushed and signed into law by DeSantis himself last year.

DeSantis is a contender for the Republican presidential candidacy, but he lags behind Donald Trump significantly, according to the most recent poll on potential GOP primary voters.

While most markers show a disproportionate level of support for Republicans across the state, recent presidential elections show more balanced numbers.

Among Florida voters, 51.2% chose Donald Trump in the 2020 election, while 47.9% went for Biden. In 2016 it was 49% for Trump and 47.8% for Democrat Hilary Clinton. 

The state has 472,000 more Republicans registered as voters than Democrats, giving the GOP a critical advantage. In spite of that, Barack Obama won the state in both 2008 and 2012 presidential elections, surpassing the 50% majority.

Benzinga's Take: The question of whether the shift towards Democrats in Jacksonville is solely related to a rejection of DeSantis or indicative of a more systemic shift towards Democrat support has yet to be answered.

The win does certainly add psychological support to the Democrats as it shows that historically red states could still be turned blue.

Image by Benzinga using assets from WIkimedia Commons.