On Monday, a report by the Pew Research Center revealed that despite Democrats staving off a predicted red wave in the 2022 midterm elections, Republican turnout was stronger, energizing key demographic groups including women, Latinos, and rural voters.
This development serves as a cautionary note for Democrats as they prepare for the 2024 presidential election, reported The New York Times.
What Happened: The Pew report indicates that a larger percentage of voters who supported Donald Trump in 2020 cast ballots in the 2022 midterms than those who backed President Joe Biden.
The data also shows that voters who had participated in past elections but sat out 2022 were overwhelmingly Democrats.
Furthermore, despite Democratic efforts to sway Republican voters, the Pew report found that a vast majority of voters remained loyal to their party through the 2018, 2020, and 2022 elections.
See Also: New Poll Contradicts GOP Presidential Candidate Vivek Ramaswamy’s Rising Star
Why It Matters: A recent poll showed Biden leading in a hypothetical race against Trump, reversing a trend where Trump had overtaken Biden.
However, the Pew report suggests that the Democrats may need to focus more on energizing their core party loyalists to vote, rather than persuading Republicans to switch allegiance.
Pew analyzed a panel of over 7,000 Americans, tracking their attitudes and voting behavior across multiple election cycles, and verified their actual voting through state voting rolls. This offers a comprehensive picture of the 2022 electorate.
According to Hannah Hartig, one of the authors of the Pew report, “An eternal debate among political analysts after each election is what was a bigger factor in the outcome — persuading voters to switch their allegiance, or getting more of their core party loyalists to vote.”
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