The Biden Dilemma: Voters Favor Trump's Hand On The Economy Even After GDP Grows, New Poll Reveals

Americans’ assessment of the economy and their personal financial situation has improved, but this hasn’t translated into a boost in approval ratings for President Joe Biden, as indicated by the results of a new poll published on Sunday.

The Conundrum: Forty-eight percent of survey respondents reported that they were now either living comfortably or able to meet expenses with a little left over, according to the FT-Michigan Ross poll results. The survey, conducted between Feb. 29 and March 2 with a margin of error of +/-3.1%, included 1,010 registered voters.

A more modest 43% felt the same in the November survey.

The March poll, conducted ahead of the Super Tuesday presidential primary elections, found that the percentage of respondents describing overall economic conditions in the U.S. as “excellent” or “good” had increased from 21% in November to 30% in March.

However, despite these improvements, voters’ approval rating for Biden’s handling of the economy remained stagnant at 36%, unchanged from November. Fifty-nine percent disapproved of the president’s management of the economy, down only two points from November.

"It's bad news for President Biden because more voters rate him negatively on the economy than rate him positively," said Erik Gordon, a professor at the Ross School of Business at the University of Michigan. “It has to worry his campaign that independent voters, who might decide the election, rate his performance even worse.”

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Trump a Better Bet for Economy: When respondents were asked to choose between Trump and Biden for better handling of the economy, 40% said they trusted the former, compared to 34% who chose Biden. About 20% said they trusted neither.

“The views of independents pose a problem for Biden, who needs to persuade swing voters in critical battleground states to vote for him again to win re-election,” FT said.

Why It’s Important: Biden’s campaign gained some traction after his State of the Union address delivered late Thursday. The president used the platform to contrast his vision for America with that of his predecessor. Biden took aim at Trump for the Capitol Hill riot on Jan 6, 2021, the overturning of the Roe Vs. Wade verdict that gave women abortion rights, and the Republican’s opposition to the passage of the border security bill.

A CNN poll found that six in 10 of the viewers of the address had a positive reaction to his speech.

Hard data points to an economy that has thrived despite a series of rate hikes that have left the Fed funds rate at a 22-year high. Real GDP grew at a seasonally adjusted annualized quarter-over-quarter rate of 3.2% in 2023, a commendable figure compared to 0.5% growth for the euro area – a bloc of 20 nations sharing the euro as the common currency.

The U.S. economy has been adding jobs at a robust clip. The February non-farm payrolls report released Friday showed that non-farm payrolls expanded by 275,000 and the jobless rate, though rising marginally, remained low at 3.9%.

Inflation, which continues to be a concern for the Federal Reserve, has notably slowed from the cycle peak in the summer of 2022.

Reflecting economic optimism, the stock market has climbed to record highs after taking off at the start of 2023. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY, an index tracking the broader S&P 500 Index, rose to an intraday record of 518.22 on Friday, closing slightly lower at $511.72, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Given the tight race projected by most polls, how Biden’s campaign team communicates these positive economic indicators to voters, especially in swing states, remains key.

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