Neither President Joe Biden nor his predecessor Donald Trump cuts ice with voters in the two battleground states of Michigan and Pennsylvania, new poll results published on Friday showed.
What Happened: Trump and Biden are in a dead heat in Pennsylvania, while the former president led the incumbent by a margin of 50% to 42%, new CNN Polling conducted by SSRS among registered voters in the state found. These two states flipped from Republicans to Democrats in the 2020 election.
Biden’s support base from 2020- women, voters of college graduates and independents, appeared to remain intact more in Pennsylvania than in Michigan, the poll found. In Michigan, women were now evenly split between Trump and Biden, and among voters of color, Biden’s lead in 2020 has contracted. The president trailed Trump significantly among independent and young voters.
While Biden held onto nine out of his 10 self-described 2020 supporters, Trump retained all of his 2020 voters and also made inroads into those who did not vote for him.
Referendum On Trump: The poll found that the race is turning out to be a referendum on Trump and not a race between him and Biden. A majority of voters said their vote for Trump is an expression of support for him rather than a vote against Biden.
On the flip side, Biden supporters say their vote for the president is a vote against Trump.
Subpar Approval/Favorability Ratings: Forty percent of Pennsylvanians approve Biden’s job as president, and a more modest 35% of Michigan voters think likewise. On a positive note, a double-digit percentage of those who disapprove of his job as president still support him in a matchup against Trump.
A majority of voters in both states viewed Biden and Trump unfavorably. About one in six in each state are so-called “double-haters,” holding an unfavorable view of both Biden and Trump, the poll found.
Kennedy A Darkhorse: When independent candidates Robert Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West were added to the ballot along with Trump and Biden, Kennedy took away the support of 16% of the voters in Pennsylvania and 18% support in Michigan.
West received a more modest 4% support in both states.
Kennedy’s inclusion gave a two-point lead for Trump in Pennsylvania from an equal share of votes in a two-way matchup. In Michigan, the equation between Trump and Biden changed to 40%-34% in a four-way contest from 50-42% in a two-way race.
“In both states, fewer than one-fifth of those backing candidates other than Biden or Trump say they are enthusiastic about their choice, with about half in each state saying they back their candidate mostly because they don't like their other options,” the report said.
Trump A Better Bet: Trump easily wins over voters in both states when it comes to which candidate would be more effective in addressing various key issues such as the economy, immigration, and the situation in Israel and Gaza.
The former president had a narrow edge over Biden in handling the U.S. role in world affairs. On the other hand, Biden led Trump by a wide margin in both states on handling abortion policies. While Pennsylvanians trusted Biden with preserving democracy but Michigan voters split about evenly between the two.
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