The matchup between President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump continued to suggest a very tight race in 2024, with the results of a recent poll released on Thursday confirming the same.
Neck-And-Neck Race: In a hypothetical head-to-head contest among registered voters, Trump garnered 51% of support, while Biden received 49%, found a new Marquette Law School Poll national survey.
Within the registered voter category, 52% of those who said they were likely to vote supported Biden, while 48% backed Trump. The former president maintained sway over registered voters who were uncertain about voting, with 56% favoring him compared to 44% who supported Biden.
Trump fared even better with people who were unregistered to vote, with 64% supporting him compared to 36% who backed Biden.
“This highlights the potential impact of voter registration and turnout efforts in the upcoming campaign,” the pollster said.
The survey was conducted between March 18-28, and interviewed 868 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points. The sample size was 674 for likely voters and 1,000 for all adults.
Party-wise support of registered voters showed that Trump's support among Republicans slipped by five points from February to March, while Biden's support among Democrats rose two points. In March, a majority of independents said they would vote for Biden, reversing Trump's advantage with independents in February.
Five-Way Race: When the ballot question was expanded to include independent candidates Robert Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Trump received 41% support of registered voters, Biden 38%, Kennedy 4%, West 5% and Stein 2%.
Additional candidates on the ballot drew partisan support away from both Trump and Biden, the poll found. Trump’s support among Republicans dwindled from 88% in a two-way race to 77% in a five-way race. Similarly, Biden’s support among Democrats fell from 93% to 76%.
“Independent voters are widely spread across the candidates, with the independent and third-party candidates doing much better with independents than with partisans,” the pollster said.
Trump and Biden both won 20% from independents, while Kennedy took 37%, West 15%, and Stein 7%.
Biden Vs. Trump: Favorability: Both Trump and Biden had a net negative favorability rating, according to the poll. Biden’s net favorability remained nearly steady at -20 over the past year. The number represents a sharp deterioration from a -5 net favorability rating he earned in Nov. 2021.
Trump's net favorability, though having improved from -34 in Nov. 2021 to -13 in the current poll, was four points more negative than in February.
Biden’s job approval improved slightly from 38% in February to 40% in March. When registered voters were asked to rate Trump’s handling of his job when he was president, 47% approved and 53% disapproved.
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