Voters seem to be overlooking Donald Trump‘s legal challenges, increasingly supporting the former president even as the first of his four criminal trials has begun.
The Matchups: Trump received the support of 46% of voters surveyed in the latest Emerson College poll, while President Joe Biden trailed his predecessor by three percentage points with a tally of 43%. Twelve percent of voters said they were undecided.
The nationwide poll was held on April 16-17 with a sample of 1,308 registered voters. The poll's margin of error was +/- 2.6 percentage points.
While Trump’s support remained consistent with Emerson College Polling’s early-April survey, Biden’s backing declined by two points.
When those who were undecided were asked to choose between Biden and Trump, the latter received the majority of support. Trump received the backing of 51% of the respondents compared to Biden’s 49%.
Even when independent voters were included in the ballot, Trump remained in the lead. In a hypothetical five-way race including Robert Kennedy Jr., Cornel West and Jill Stein, Trump received 44% support, Biden 40%, Kennedy 8% and West 1%, while 8% were undecided. Stein’s support was only fractional.
Key Election Issues: The economy is a primary concern for voters as they get ready to select their presidential candidate, according to the poll. Thirty-six percent of voters picked economy as the top issue, while 21% chose immigration and 10% saw the threat to democracy as the key issue.
Forty-four percent of voters said their family income was average, while 38% said it was below average. Eighteen percent said their family income was above average.
“Income perception aligns with candidate preference, with those feeling their income is far below average favoring Trump 50% to 32% and those feeling it's far above average favoring Biden 55% to 29%,” Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.
An overwhelming majority of the respondents (75%) said the cost of living in the U.S. is rising, while 18% said it is staying the same and 7% said it is falling. The perception of rising living costs is significant, as those who perceive inflationary pressures tended to favor Trump over Biden.
“Voters who think the cost of living is rising support Trump over Biden, 56% to 32%. Those who feel the cost of living is easing or staying the same support Biden over Trump, 94% to 6% and 67% to 18%,” Kimball said.
An analysis of voter preference based on the hours worked showed that “Trump gains support among those working 40-60 hours, with increasing margins as hours increase, peaking at 80% for those working over 60 hours, compared to 7% for Biden.”
Biden’s approval rating has been lackluster at under 40%, with more 52% of the voters disapproving his job as president. Incidentally, a poll by the Financial Times and the University of Michigan‘s Ross School of Business found earlier this month that Biden’s job approval rating was slowly improving.
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