President Joe Biden has established a substantial lead over his presumptive opponent Donald Trump in Wisconsin, a crucial swing state, according to an opinion poll released on Wednesday.
Head-to-Head Matchup: In a head-to-head matchup, Biden secured the support of 50% of the respondents, while Trump received a more modest 44% support, as per the Quinnipiac University poll of registered voters. The remaining 6% either indicated they wouldn’t vote, were undecided, would vote for someone else, or refused to disclose their preference.
The poll gathered responses from 1,457 self-identified registered voters in Wisconsin between May 2-6, with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points.
Party-wise Breakdown: Among Democrats, Biden enjoyed 97% support, while among independents, he secured 50% support. Conversely, Trump garnered 95% of Republican votes, with 43% support from independents.
Five-Way Race: When independent candidates Robert Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, as well as Green Party candidate Jill Stein, were included on the ballot, the dynamics shifted:
- Biden: 40%
- Trump: 39%
- Kennedy: 12%
- Stein: 4%
- West: 1%
Eighty percent of Biden’s supporters in a two-way race remained loyal to him in the five-way race, while 11% shifted to Kennedy, 7% to Stein, and 2% to West. Trump’s support was less affected by the expanded ballot, with 87% of his initial supporters sticking with him. Only 10% switched to Kennedy, and 1% each to West and Stein.
“While the modest lead for Biden in the head-to-head will certainly resonate with his base, when all the candidates are thrown into the mix the race between Biden and Trump is basically a tie,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
Trump Over Biden in Key Issues: Despite Biden’s lead, most Wisconsin voters view his predecessor as better suited to handle key issues:
| Issue | Biden | Trump |
|---|---|---|
| Abortion | 54% | 36% |
| Preservation of Democracy | 51% | 42% |
| International Conflicts | 48% | 47% |
| Response to Israel-Hamas War | 45% | 43% |
| Economy | 52% | 44% |
| Immigration | 51% | 43% |
Regarding the ongoing issue of protests on college and university campuses, 50% opposed it, 38% supported it, and 11% did not offer an opinion.
When asked to prioritize the most urgent issue facing the country from a list of 10 options, 24% mentioned the economy, while 20% each chose immigration and preserving democracy.
A majority of voters (65%) rated the nation’s economy as either “not-so-good” or “poor.” Forty-nine percent believed the economy was worsening, while 30% felt it remained the same, and 20% believed it was improving.
However, respondents were more positive about their personal financial situations, with 65% describing them as either “excellent” or “good.” Despite this optimism, 61% of voters expressed concerns about inflation, stating that their income was not keeping up with the cost of living.
In a notable trend favoring Trump, 47% of voters reported being worse off financially in 2024 compared to 2020, while 41% claimed they were better off, and 10% reported no change.
Forty-nine percent of respondents expressed opposition to Biden’s student loan cancellation proposal.
Biden’s job approval rating was a modest 39%, with a majority (58%) disapproving of his performance as president.
These results hold significance as Wisconsin is one of the seven swing states in the current presidential election cycle. Swing states, which have swung between Republicans and Democrats in recent years, are crucial battlegrounds where candidates focus their campaign efforts to gain an advantage. The outcome in these states could be pivotal in what is anticipated to be a closely contested election.
Wisconsin, previously considered a “blue-belt state,” shifted to Trump in the 2016 election before returning to the Democrats in 2020, reclaiming its status as a swing state.
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