Biden Vs. Trump Matchup In This Traditionally Red State Shows Republican Party's Lead Could Shrink Due To This Factor

Donald Trump has the support of the majority of voters in Louisiana, although the lead may be not as big as the one he had over President Joe Biden in the 2020 election, poll results published on Friday showed.

The Matchups: In a head-to-head matchup, Trump came on top with 52% support compared to Biden’s 38%, a poll commissioned by The Advocate/The Times-Picayune showed. The poll was conducted by Louisiana-based nonpartisan research firm Faucheux Strategies. About 800 registered voters across Louisiana were surveyed between April 22-26, with the margin of error at 3.5%.

The margin suggests that Trump could beat Biden by a smaller margin than the 18.6% difference that was in Trump’s favor in 2020. The former president took away 58% of Louisiana’s total vote in 2020 and Biden polled 40%. Louisiana, historically a red state, has consistently favored Republican candidates, polling between 57% and 59% of voters in every election since 2024, according to the newspaper. Bill Clinton was the last Democratic candidate to win the state in a presidential contest in 1996.

Adding independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, along with third-party candidate Jill Stein, to the ballot resulted in 48% of Louisiana voters choosing Trump, while 33% chose Biden. Kennedy received 10% support, followed by West, with 2%, and Stein, with 1%. Another 6% of the respondents said they don't know who they'd back.

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Not So Easy: The survey revealed that Trump’s support could erode if he is convicted in one of the four criminal cases he is fighting.

“A conviction could cost Trump between 2% and 9% of his support in Louisiana. Even then, he’d still win the state comfortably, but similar erosion in battleground states could be consequential,” the report said.

Most of Trump’s criminal cases have been delayed, with the former president’s detractors crying foul over Trump-appointed judges ruling in his favor. Legal experts suggest that the New York City criminal case involving the former president’s alleged sexual affair with adult movie star Stormy Daniels and the subsequent cover-up of hush-money payments made to her is the only trial likely to reach a verdict.

Trump narrowly won the suburbs in 2020, but his advisers are now concerned about these suburban precincts, the report said. The Republicans’ hard stance against abortion have also not gone down well with these voters, it added.

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