Biden Vs. Trump: A Slice Of Incumbent's 2020 Backers Are Poised To Defect, But Will It Matter For His Re-Election?

After polls showed swing state voters increasingly gravitating toward Donald Trump, secondary analysis of the data and follow-up interviews that were published on Friday revealed interesting results.

Loyalty Wanes? After a New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer, Siena College poll released Monday showed Trump leading Joe Biden in five of six battleground states, new analysis found that 14% of 2020 Biden voters in these states said they would not vote for him again., reported The New York Times.

These respondents said they would vote for Trump, a third-party candidate, were undecided, or wouldn’t vote at all.

Follow-up interviews revealed that issues like abortion rights and preserving democracy were important, and they disliked Trump’s personality. However, new concerns such as inflation, immigration, and foreign policy made them unhappy with how things have played out, leading them to consider not voting.

The report said these defectors accounted for just 6% of registered voters in the battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — but they could play a decisive role.

These defectors cut across party lines.

On a positive note, they still support Democrats for the Senate, which could be a silver lining for Biden. The president still has a chance to bring some of the defectors back to his camp.

They include Democrats, Republicans and independents who voted for Biden in 2020. Many still support Democrats for Senate, suggesting that Biden still has a chance to regain support from some of them.

Also, most Biden defectors said they weren't thrilled with either candidate.

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Defector Demographics: The Times poll showed that Biden defectors increasingly fretted about the poor economy compared to those who repledged their allegiance to the president. They wanted fundamental changes to the way things worked.

The defectors were more often young or Hispanic — a group that has historically aligned with Democrats. They have since shifted slightly toward the Republican party.

On the other hand, Trump defectors — those who voted for Trump in 2020 and were now leaning away from him — were less than half the number of Biden defectors.

Sore On Economy: Half of all registered voters in the surveys said the economy is poor, including nearly three-quarters of Biden defectors. But just one in six of those who plan to vote for Biden again rated the economy as poor. Follow-up interviews by the Times showed that Biden defectors harped on prices.

One of the Wisconsin voters reportedly expressed unhappiness over “Biden's policies of overspending and printing money” and said she would vote for Trump.

FT-Michigan Ross' nationwide poll conducted between May 2-6 also identified inflation as the primary concern of voters.

Nearly six in 10 defectors believe that the country needed big, fundamental change, while a similar share of Biden loyalists said they want politics to return to normal.

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