Ahead of the 2024 presidential election, Paul Krugman has raised questions about whether falling gas prices will positively influence President Joe Biden‘s poll numbers.
What Happened: Paul Krugman, a renowned American economist, raised doubts about whether falling gas prices would benefit President Joe Biden‘s poll numbers. According to a post on X on Sunday, Krugman highlighted the political influence of gas prices despite presidents having minimal control over them.
“One factor I think is being underrated in political analysis is the price of gasoline. It *shouldn’t* be a political issue, since presidents have very little influence,” Krugman wrote.
Krugman noted that futures prices indicate a significant drop in gas prices in the near future. He also pointed out that gas is not historically unaffordable, referencing a comparison of gas prices as a percentage of median weekly earnings.
However, Krugman emphasized that partisanship often distorts public perception, even for widely visible prices like gas. He cited a poll where 42% of Republicans believed gas prices were rising last December, despite a prolonged decline.
Krugman concluded by questioning whether the expected drop in gas prices would aid Biden or if many would ignore the reality of the situation. “So will gas prices help Biden? Or will large numbers of people refuse to believe their own eyes?” he asked,
Why It Matters: The debate over gas prices comes amid a broader discussion about the U.S. economy under Biden’s administration. In a recent interview, Biden claimed he had already turned the economy around, attributing persistent inflation to “corporate greed.”
In April, Krugman dismissed fears of rising inflation, citing a survey by the Atlanta Federal Reserve that showed stable inflation expectations.
Additionally, global gasoline demand growth is projected to halve by 2024 due to the increasing adoption of electric vehicles in the U.S. and China, which could further impact gas prices.
Despite these economic factors, a recent poll revealed that 51% of Americans believe they were better off financially during former President Donald Trump‘s tenure, even though Biden’s administration has overseen significant economic growth and the best job market since the 1960s.
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