The results of another poll published on Friday showed a close 2024 presidential race is in the cards, aligning with the results of several other surveys.
The Matchups: Donald Trump narrowly led President Joe Biden in Emerson College’s national survey of U.S. voters conducted in May. The former president garnered the support of 46% of voters, two points ahead of Biden’s 44% support. A sizeable proportion (10%) said they were undecided.
The survey was conducted from May 21-23 with a sample of 1,100 registered voters, carrying a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.
When those who said they were undecided were asked to pick between both candidates, the race was a dead heat, with 50% each backing Biden and Trump.
“Voters under 30 break for Biden by 15 points, with a quarter undecided. When these undecideds are pushed, the group breaks for Biden by 26 points, 63% to 37%, reflective of his margin in 2020 with this group,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. But Biden trailed among voters in their 30s, a reversal from 2020, when he led Trump in this category.
Trump increased his lead among voters in their 50s, with the current tally at 57% to 38% in favor of the former president.
Among new voters who did not vote in the 2020 election, 41% were undecided, while 35% and 24%, respectively, supported Trump and Biden.
A five-way race saw both candidates losing some support but Biden was the worst hit when independent candidates Robert Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West and Green Party’s Jill Stein were added on the ballot. The breakdown of support is as follows:
- Trump: 44%
- Biden: 39%
- Kennedy: 6%
- West: 1%
- Stein: 1%
- Undecided: 10%
Biden Losing Support Among Base? When voters were asked whether Biden and Trump should be nominated by their respective party, more Republicans sided with Trump than the number of Democrats who supported Biden.
Only 68% of the Democratic primary voters said the party should nominate Biden at the Democratic National Convention, which is scheduled from Aug. 19-22. Twenty-four percent wanted the party to nominate someone else, and 8% said they were unsure or did not have a opinion.
A majority of all age groups support the Democrats nominating Biden except those under 30 years old, with 53% of these young voters preferring a different candidate.
On the other hand, 80% of Republican primary voters want their party to nominate Trump for presidency, 14% wanted someone else and 6% said they were unsure or did not have any opinion.
Biden’s job approval rating among all voters remained an anemic 37%, while 52% disapproved of his job as president.
If Trump were to be found guilty in the hush-money case, 53% said the verdict would not impact their stance, 23% said they would be more likely to vote for him and 25% said they would be less likely to vote for him.
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