Trump Vs. Biden Matchup In 3 Battleground States Shows Neither Side Has Meaningful Advantage — But Pollster Flags Key Concern For Ex-President Amid Guilty Verdict

Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican candidate, hasn’t ceded advantage to President Joe Biden, his likely contender from the other side of the aisle, despite his guilty verdict in the New York election interference case, aka hush-money case, new poll results published Tuesday showed.

The 2-Way Matchup: Biden and Trump were in deadlock in the battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the poll conducted by Florida Atlantic University Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab and Mainstreet Research between May 30-31 showed. The results assume importance as Trump was pronounced guilty in the hush-money case on May 30.

A sample of 797 adults, 18 years or older, living in the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin were surveyed for the purpose, with the margin of error at +/- 3.5%.

Here’s how the match-up stacks up in these three states:

Michigan

Pennsylvania

Wisconsin

Biden emerged the victor in these three states in 2020, although by razor-thin margins. The president prevailed in these states by margins of 2.8%, 1.2%, and less than 1%, respectively

"Neither side has a meaningful advantage in any of the three states at this time," said Dukhong Kim, associate professor of political science at FAU.

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Economy – Key Election Issue: The economy remained a key election in these battleground states, the pollster said. “These battleground states continue to prioritize economic concerns over social issues like immigration and abortion,” it said.

But the second-tier priorities saw a split based on party lines. Thirty percent of Trump voters ranked immigration as their second-most crucial issue compared to only 5.5% of Biden voters. Biden supporters flagged abortion access as highly important, versus just 5% who backed Trump.

Trump’s Criminal Conviction: The poll also found that Trump’s legal cases will only solidify his support base. “Trump's legal jeopardy may be rallying part of his base,” said Kevin Wagner, co-director at FAU's PolCom Lab and professor of political science.

“Most of his supporters don't believe he's guilty, while Biden voters overwhelmingly think he committed crimes.”

The political science professor flagged a potential risk for Trump. Given that 18% of Republicans said they believe the former president is guilty, he said, “If they stay home, it could matter in November, especially in close states like these.”

Among all voters, 49% said Trump is guilty of wrongdoing, with the view more prevalent among Black voters, Hispanics, and white voters with college degrees.

Among other demographics, 38% under 35 years, referred to as young voters, said they were less certain about Trump’s culpability, 33% said he should not have been found guilty and 30% were unsure. “The lack of concern from young people about financial crimes against the presidency is quite interesting,” said Garcia.

“It may stem from an underdeveloped understanding of how critical those laws are to preserving democracy.”

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