Ahead of the 2024 presidential election, former President Donald Trump has seen a decline in support following his recent conviction. Despite this, he still holds a slight lead over President Joe Biden.
What Happened: According to a New York Times/Siena poll, Trump has lost a small portion of his potential supporters following his conviction yet maintains a lead over Biden.
Trump leads Biden by one percentage point in a direct contest, according to RealClearPolitics' polling averages. When third-party candidates are included, his lead narrows to 2.2 points.
In seven critical swing states — Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania — Trump consistently leads Biden. These states are pivotal for the upcoming election, with Biden having narrowly won all but North Carolina in 2020.
A survey by the Cook Political Report in May indicated that Trump held an average lead of three points in these states. Likewise, a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll from the same month revealed that Trump was ahead of Biden by four points in these key battleground regions.
In a close race, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could influence the election outcome. A May Emerson poll revealed Trump's lead over Biden increases from two to five points with Kennedy and other independents in the mix.
Recent polls show that Biden and the Democratic Party are losing traction with crucial demographic groups, such as Black, Latino and younger voters. A survey conducted by NPR/PBS/Marist in May additionally revealed that voters under 45 favor Biden over Trump by a slim margin of just four points.
Why It Matters: Trump’s recent conviction has significantly impacted the political landscape, with polls showing mixed results for the two leading candidates.
Contrary to the New York Times/Siena poll, a Yahoo News and YouGov poll conducted from June 3 to 6, for example, showed that Biden now leads Trump by two points in a two-way race, marking Biden’s highest support since August 2023. This is the first time Biden has led Trump since October 2023.
Trump’s conviction has not only affected his support but also highlighted the volatility of voter preferences in the lead-up to the 2024 election. The inclusion of third-party candidates like Kennedy further complicates the race, as they could sway the outcome by drawing votes away from the major party candidates.
The loss of support among key demographics for Biden and the Democratic Party, particularly among Black, Latino, and younger voters, underscores the challenges they face in securing a win. The shifting dynamics in swing states, which are crucial for electoral victory, add another layer of complexity to the election.
This content was partially produced with the help of Benzinga Neuro and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo: Shutterstock
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
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