As the 2024 presidential race is widely expected to be a closely fought one, a pointer toward the potential outcome was presented by a Wall Street Journal report published on Tuesday.
What Happened: Pennsylvania could play a pivotal role in the 2024 election and determine who among President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump will reclaim the White House, said the report, citing analysis of data from the seven swing states.
If Biden loses in Pennsylvania, which goes by the moniker “Keystone State,” then he is all set to cede presidentship to Trump, the report said. Among the swing states, the race in Wisconsin and Michigan is too close to call. With the Democratic camp stepping up efforts in these states, it is likely Biden will retain these two states, which he won back from Republicans in the 2020 election, the Journal said.
Presumptive Republican candidate Trump holds an edge in Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina, given he was leading Biden by about five percentage points in each of these states, the report said.
Why It’s Important: In Pennsylvania, Trump is ahead of Biden by about three points in most polls, the report said. Delving into the reasons for Trump’s lead, the report cited a Marist College survey, which found that Biden may have lost support in the suburban “collar-counties” around Philadelphia. The president now had a mere seven-point advantage over Trump in these counties, down sharply from the 19-point advantage he had in 2020.
The report also highlighted three other weak areas for Biden in the Keystone State:
- Marist survey showed Black support for Biden dwindled to 68% vis-a-vis the 92% of the Black votes he garnered in 2020, according to CNN’s exit poll. On the other hand, Trump’s support among this demographic more than tripled to 23%.
- Marist survey showed 44% of voters under 45 years currently favored Biden, while the exit polls from 2020 showed a steeper 60% of sub-45 year voters backed him.
- Double haters, which refer to voters who disapprove of both candidates, now accounted for 25% of the national electorate, marking the highest in decades. The Marist survey showed only 24% of the double haters in Pennsylvania said they would vote for Biden compared to 35% and 19% support for Trump and Robert Kennedy Jr, respectively.
On a positive note, Biden is making inroads into a couple of demographics, which typically do not align with him, the Journal said. The president received 41% of Pennsylvanian white voters and 45% of the vote from those 45 years and older, Marist poll showed.
“His problem is the erosion of support from nonwhite and younger voters, who supported him by massive margins four years ago,” the report said. “This explains why he remains competitive in the "blue wall" swing states—Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—which are dominated by older white voters, while losing ground in the Southern and Southwestern swing states, where his slender majorities rested on younger and more demographically diverse populations.”
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