Biden Vs. Trump Matchup Shows President Now Trails By Smallest Margin In Key Swing States, Poll Finds Democrats Have Best Chance With This Candidate

Despite President Joe Biden‘s poor performance in the debate, he has gained some traction among voters in swing states, also known as battleground states, according to a new poll released on Saturday.

Best Showing Yet: Former President Donald Trump leads Biden by a 47%-45% margin, a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult tracking poll showed. The pollster noted that the lead has contracted to its smallest margin since the poll began last October. Three percent said they would not vote and 5% said they don’t know/have no opinion.

The poll surveyed 4,902 registered voters in seven swing states, 781 registered voters in Arizona, 790 in Georgia, 694 in Michigan, 452 in Nevada, 696 in North Carolina, 794 in Pennsylvania and 695 in Wisconsin. The surveys were conducted online from July 1 to July 5. The margin of sampling error was 3 percentage points in Georgia and Pennsylvania, 4 percentage points in Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin and 5 percentage points in Nevada.

The poll showed that Biden leads his predecessor in Michigan and Wisconsin, while he trails behind Trump by a margin less than the statistical margin of error in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.

But in the critical state of Pennsylvania, the president is the farthest behind.

Here’s the tally for the individual swing states:

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Reaction To Debate Performance: Swing-state voters rated Biden’s performance in the first presidential debate as poor, with less than one in five respondents saying he was the more coherent, mentally fit or the dominant participant.

There have been overt as well as covert calls from Democratic lawmakers, party’s megadonors and pro-democracy activists for Biden to quit the race. Most voters also shared that same sentiment. Nearly three in 10 Democrats said Biden should drop out of the race. This compares to the merely 9% Republicans who want Trump to end his campaign.

Although results show a “modest boost” in concerns about Biden’s mental acuity, they’re “nothing to match the level of alarm expressed by prominent voices in the Democratic Party,” said Eli Yokley, a political analyst for Morning Consult. “This suggests the age matter was already baked into most voters' minds: The only difference now is more Democrats are acknowledging it.”

On debate performance, 52% of the respondents said Trump exceeded expectations, while a more modest 13% said the same about Biden.

Harris The Beneficiary: The percentage of respondents who said Biden should definitely or probably continue his campaign was 39%, compared to 50% saying the same of Trump.

The poll found that large majorities of undecided voters and “double haters” expressed opinion that Biden should quit the race, which suggests an alternative candidate could snag support of these two categories.

If Biden were to step aside, Vice President Kamala Harris would be the top choice of swing-state Democrats to replace him, followed by Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and California Governor Gavin Newsom.

Pennsylvania A Pain? Pennsylvania, which has 19 electoral voters, is the largest of the swing states, and could be key for a candidate to get over 270 electoral votes needed to reoccupy the White House. If Biden faces a setback in the Keystone State, apart from Michigan and Wisconsin, he may also have to win at least two other states or even three to clinch re-election, Bloomberg reported.

With Trump’s campaign spending over $8 million on attack ads in the past month alone, it remains to be seen if Biden can catch up with the former president and win the state, where he is currently trailing by nine points.

Why It’s Important: The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll results are in contrast to many nationwide surveys, which showed Trump pulling ahead of Biden by a wide margin after the debate. The pollster cautioned that its survey results could be an outlier.

It reasoned that its poll started four days after the debate, later than some national polls, which may have given time for voters to re-evaluate Biden’s performance. Also, the ad blitz from Biden’s campaign following the debate may have influenced the results, it added.

The first responses of the poll came after the Supreme Court granted Trump partial immunity. Bloomberg noted that democracy now rivals immigration as the second-biggest concern among swing-state voters. Other major election issues include climate change, abortion, and health care, where Biden scores better than his rival.

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