As more opinion poll results trickle in, the writing on the wall seems to be very clear for President Joe Biden and the Democrats. Two new polls showed the president trailing his rival and presumptive Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Setback In Swing States: Biden lagged Trump in a head-to-head matchup in all six swing states surveyed by Emerson College on behalf of the Democrats for the Next Generation, a political action committee set up by Bill Harris. Harris is a former chief executive of Intuit and PayPal.
The polls were conducted by Emerson College between June 30 and July 2, and it surveyed 1,000 respondents in each of six swing states, namely Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada.
Across the states, on average, Biden trailed Trump by a margin of 43%-47%, with the differential being a negative 4% points. In Pennsylvania, considered a key swing state, and Georgia, Biden trailed by 5% points. Nevada and Michigan, respectively, are the swing states in which he trailed by the widest margin (six points) and the smallest margin (one point). Biden was behind Trump by four points in Arizona and three points in Wisconsin.
Trump received 9.4% more votes than Biden in all the states put together. The pollster clarified that North Carolina, one of the swing states, will be included in future polling.
The poll found that age is a key election issue in the current presidential cycle, with a “qualified Democrat younger than Biden beating Trump by a solid margin of 53% to 47%. More importantly, if Biden were pitched against a “qualified Republican younger than Trump,” he loses by a much greater margin than by the margin at which he loses to Trump.
When respondents were asked about the ideal age for a president, respondents in all age demographics mentioned mostly a person in their 50s. This is about 25 years younger than Trump or Biden.
Only 27% of respondents in the swing states said Biden is not “too old” to be an effective president based on how he did in the debate. Most Democrats said they were motivated to back Biden because they dislike Trump and not because they like Biden. On the other hand, Trump supporters are more often motivated because they like Trump and less because they dislike Biden. Independents disliked both candidates.
“Because Republican strength is more frequently built upon support for Trump and Democratic strength is more frequently built upon opposition to Trump, Democrats may have more opportunity to select a new and younger candidate without jeopardizing as much of their current strength,” Democrats for the Next Generation, which commissioned the poll, said.
Biden Risks Loss: A separate poll conducted and commissioned by Democratic pollster Bendixen & Amandi showed that among the 86% of likely voters, who watched all or part of the debate, just 29% said Biden has the mental capacity and physical stamina to serve another four-year term, while 61% said he is not fit, Politico reported.
Only 33% said he should continue as the Democratic nominee, versus 52%, who said he should not. And just half of Democrats said Biden should be the party's nominee or was mentally and physically fit to serve out another term.
The poll found that Vice President Kamala Harris has a better chance against Trump as she led the latter by a 42%-41% margin. Incidentally, ex-White House Communication Director Anthony Scaramucci said recently in a podcast that Biden may step down and Harris is likely to run for office as an incumbent.
Hillary Clinton, who unsuccessfully contested against Trump in 2016 and is currently not in discussions as a potential Biden replacement, fared better against Trump than Harris. Clinton led Trump by 43% to 41%,
The poll also tested potential Democratic tickets and found that Clinton as a presidential candidate and Harris as her running mate performed the strongest against Trump. “Clinton-Harris is beating Trump 43 percent to 40 percent, a four-point advantage over Biden-Harris,” the pollster said.
“Voters have significant concerns about President Biden's advanced age, and their concerns have only grown louder,” said Amandi, the veteran Miami-based pollster who advised former President Barack Obama in his two presidential campaigns
“But [they are] still not enough where it has made the race a blowout for Trump,” he added.
He also expressed surprise at Hillary’s strength. “While some dismiss her as yesterday's news and a candidate of the past, voters at least in this poll suggest they may be open to a Clinton comeback and that a ticket with Clinton as president and Harris as vice president is even ‘stronger together,'” he said.
Among other potential Democratic candidates, California Governor Gavin Newsom trailed Trump, 37%-40%, and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer was further behind, 36%-40%.
The new survey of 1,000 likely November voters had a 3.1% margin of error and was conducted between July 2 and July 6.
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