Donald Trump now has a four-point lead over President Joe Biden in a nationwide poll conducted in the first week of July, after the two ran neck-to-neck ahead of the first presidential debate held on June 27.
The Matchups: Trump and Biden received 44% and 40% support of registered voters, respectively, while independent candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. managed to get the backing of 15% of voters, according to Pew Research Center’s latest survey. 2% of voters said they do not support or lean toward any of the three candidates listed on the survey.
The survey was conducted between July 1-7, with the sample size being 9,424 adults, including 7,729 registered voters,
When the respondents were asked to pick between the two major party candidates, Trump still led but his lead contracted to three points. The equation between the two under this scenario was 50% to 47% in favor of Trump.
Among the major demographics, men more likely sided with Trump (48%) and white voters (50%) threw their weight behind the former president. Black voters largely backed Biden, with 64% saying they would support the president in the 2024 election. Only 21% of Black voters favored Kennedy and 13% supported Trump.
Hispanic voters were evenly divided in their preferences, with 36% each backing Biden and Trump, while 24% sided with Kennedy.
In a two-way contest, 56% of white voters favored Trump, while Biden drew support from 78% of Black voters, 59% of Asian voters and 51% of Hispanic voters.
Biden found favor with young voters, with the proportion of voters under 30 years supporting the three candidates as follows:
- Biden: 48%
- Trump: 28%
- Kennedy: 22%
In a two-way contest with only Trump and Biden, six in ten voters under 30 backed Biden, while 39% would choose Trump. The 30-49 years and over 50 years age categories were won over by Trump by a 51% to 46% margin and a 53%-45% margin, respectively.
Trump Supporters More Convinced: Among Trump supporters, 63% said they strongly supported him for the presidency. A more modest 43% and 15% of Kennedy supporters said the same about their respective candidate choices.
A slightly larger share of Trump supporters (81%) than Biden supporters (77%) said they are certain to support him and will not change their minds. On the other hand, only 26% of Kennedy supporters said they were certain to support him.
This opens up the question of who would Kennedy supporters gravitate to in a two-way race. One dampener is that Kennedy supporters are less likely to vote. The proportion of Kennedy voters who said they were motivated to vote is only 21%. For Biden and Trump, this percentage is 63% each.
Just 39% of Kennedy voters said it really matters who wins the presidential election, while this percentage was 79% for Biden supporters and 63% for Trump voters.
When asked whom they would support in an election with just two candidates, Kennedy supporters were divided, with 47% saying they would vote for Biden, while 44% said they would vote for Trump. Another 9% skipped the question.
Voter Perception: Both Biden and Trump are widely viewed as flawed, though in different ways. Only about a quarter of voters (24%) said the phrase “mentally sharp” describes Biden very or fairly well. On Thursday, at least two times Biden was caught mixing up names.
Trump was described as mean-spirited by 64% of voters compared to 31% who said the same about Biden. Identical shares (63% each) said Biden and Trump were “embarrassing.”
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