President Joe Biden appears to be facing an uphill battle, going by the results of a couple of new polls released this week. The results reflected responses collected amid and after the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump.
Tide Turns Definitively? Trump increased his lead over Biden with the latest tally standing at 52%-47% in the former’s favor, better than the 50%-48% results for the former president in the July 3 poll. The results are based on a CBS News/YouGov survey, which collected responses from 2,247 registered voters nationwide between July 16-18. The margin of error of the survey was +/-2.7 points.
This five-point lead would be his largest national lead over Biden in the campaign so far, the pollster said. “It’s been 20 years since a Republican presidential candidate has won the national popular vote, and over 30 years since a Republican won by more than five,” CBS News’ report said.
In the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Trump was ahead but with a three-point lead, scoring 51% as opposed to the 47% support Biden received. This marks a one-point move toward Trump from early July.
The above two standings were based on responses from likely voters, which is a subset of the registered voters surveyed.
Two-thirds of the registered voters said Trump’s handling of the July 13 assassination attempt has not changed their consideration, while 26% said it has made them more likely to consider the former president. 7% said it has made them less likely to consider him. A little over half of the respondents (54%) said after the assassination attempt, Trump has encouraged more unity, while 46% said he has encouraged more division.
When voters were asked which of the candidates fights a lot for people like them, 37% picked Trump, 28% Biden and 26% each chose Vice President Kamala Harris and Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio). Harris and Vance are currently picked as the running mates of Biden and Trump, respectively.
Harris Better Choice? In the hypothetical matchup with Trump, Harris performed better than Biden but still lagged behind the former president. The results showed Trump leading with 51% compared to 48% in favor of Harris. The pollster stated that there are minimal differences in support for Harris and Biden among demographic groups, including younger voters and voters of color.
A substantial part of Democrats said Biden should step aside as nominee.
A separate AP-NORC poll showed that 7 in 10 adults, including 65% of Democrats, said Biden should withdraw and allow his party to select a different nominee. The survey was conducted between July 11-15 and was mostly completed before the attempted assassination of Trump. Only 35% of the Democrats want him to stay in the race.
On the other hand, 57% of adults want Trump to withdraw from the race and allow his party to name a replacement. An overwhelming 73% of Republicans, however, said he should stay in the race.
Doubts about Biden's mental capability to be an effective president despite more people viewing him as more honest than Trump.
Biden finds staunch support from Black Democrats but more younger Democrats (sub-45 years) want him to quit the race.
The poll found that 36% of the public, including 58% of Democrats and 20% of independents, think Harris would make a good president.
The percentage of Democrats who do not think Harris would make a good replacement was 20%, while 20% do not know enough to comment. Among independents, 39% said they do not think she would make a good president and 40% do not know enough to have an opinion.
Among Republicans, 87% say Harris would not make a good president.
AP-NORC survey showed that most have not developed opinions about either California Governor Gavin Newsom or Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, both of whom have been mentioned as possible replacements for Biden.
The CBS News/YouGov survey showed that Democrats continue to trail Republicans on the likelihood of turning out for election this year.
Vance’s addition was welcomed by Republican voters, with 51% saying they are enthusiastic, 43% are satisfied and only 6% are angry/dissatisfied.
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