Trump Vs. Harris: New Poll Shows Close Race, But Vice President Could Benefit From 'Dramatic Shifts' Among These Key Voter Groups

Vice President Kamala Harris, who is widely seen as the likely Democratic nominee, is expected to face a tough contest against Donald Trump, according to the results of a new poll released on Wednesday.

The Matchup: In a hypothetical matchup between Trump and Harris, the former prevailed by a 49%-46% margin among registered voters, but his lead was within the survey’s margin of error.

The poll commissioned by CNN was conducted by SSRS, from July 22-23, among a random national sample of 1,631 registered voters who participated in previous CNN polls in April or June.

Incidentally, Harris performed relatively better than President Joe Biden, who trailed by six percentage points in a head-to-head matchup with Trump in the April and June polls.

See Also: Anthony Scaramucci Flags Demographic Data Causing Jitters In Trump’s Campaign, Calls Harris A ‘Competent Steward Of The American Century’

Trump Holds Onto Support: The poll found that Trump retained the support of 92% of the respondents who backed him in the April and June polls, while Harris retained the support of a steeper 95% of Biden supporters. Those who previously said they would support neither Biden nor Trump in a two-way matchup were split 30%-27% in favor of Harris.

Another encouraging finding was that half of those who backed Harris said their vote was in support of her rather than a vote against Trump. “That's a dramatic shift compared with the Trump-focused dynamic of the Biden-Trump race,” CNN said. In the June poll, merely 37% said their vote was mainly to express support for the president.

74% of Trump supporters said their vote was more in support of the ex-president rather than a vote against Harris. This proportion marked an improvement from the 66% scored in the June poll. The report noted that the June poll was done ahead of the assassination attempt on Trump and the formal announcement of him as the Republican party’s nominee at the party convention.

Despite Trump’s opponent changing, his support among his strongest groups held steady, with 67% of White voters without degrees backing him and 53% of men throwing their weight on him, the poll found. This is almost flattish with the 66% and 54% he had in June when matched up with Biden.

Harris’ Support Base: The affirmative support for Harris came from groups that “typically break for Democrats but had been seen as trouble spots for the Biden campaign,” the pollster said. Out of the Harris supporters younger than 45, 43% said their vote is more in support of her than against Trump, compared to 28% of Biden voters in that age group who felt the same way about the president in June.

57% of Black voters said their vote was for Harris than against Trump, up from the 48% support Biden got in June. Among women, 54% said their vote for Harris was more for her than against Trump, up from 43% Biden scored.

Democrats’ standing among independents improved as 46% backed Trump compared to 43% who said they backed Harris. In prior polls, the tally was 47% for Trump and 37% for Biden. Harris also commanded more support among Democrats with 90% favoring her as opposed to 81% who favored Biden in previous polls.

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