Most nationwide polls conducted after Vice President Kamala Harris entered the fray have given her a slight edge, and the results of a new poll published Tuesday, while affirming the findings, also shed light on the various demographics dynamics in play.
The Matchup: Harris led Republic party nominee Donald Trump by a 47%-43% margin in a nationwide poll conducted by the Florida Atlantic University Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab, and Mainstreet Research USA. Both candidates increased their standing but maintained the same gap when responses from likely voters were considered. The tally was 49%-45%, giving Harris almost a majority.
It comes as a no surprise that Harris wields the clout with Black voters and women. She took away the support of 53% of female voters and mustered the backing of only 45% of men. On the other hand, Trump received the support of 47% of men and 41% of women.
The vice president was backed by about three-fourths of Black voters and a little over half of Hispanic voters. About 57% of white, college-educated voters threw their weight behind her. Whites without a college degree favored mostly Trump, with the ex-president receiving 59% support from this cohort.
“Since her elevation to the top of the ticket, Vice President Harris has effectively appealed to women voters, and the gender gap has become more pronounced," said Luzmarina Garcia, assistant professor of political science at FAU. “Harris has also re-established the Democratic Party's advantage with minority voters.”
Notable Shift Among Independents: The poll also found that Harris has made “significant” inroads among independent voters. Forty-eight percent of these voters backed her compared to a far more modest 35% who pledged allegiance to Trump. This is a notable shift from the July poll Harris had a mere two-point advantage over Trump.
“Trump is losing support from Independents compared to July, which could be a result of the Democratic Party convention and remains to be watched," said Dukhong Kim, associate professor of political science at FAU. “If this pattern persists, it will be difficult for Trump to maintain an advantage in the election.”
Voter Perception: Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, were generally perceived as left-leaning, with Harris viewed as more strongly on the far left (37%), compared to Walz (28%).
On the Republican side, Trump and the Republican party’s vice president candidate Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio.) were viewed as right-leaning, with Trump categorized as far-right by 37% of voters and Vance by 30%.
“Although both Trump and Harris are similarly seen as conservative and liberal, respectively, Tim Walz is viewed by voters as a more moderate candidate,” said Kevin Wagner, professor of political science and co-director of the PolCom Lab.. “That may change, but it does give the Democrats an opportunity to appeal to the center.”
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