Nate Silver: If Trump Loses, He Will Have Let Election 'Slip Out Of His Grasp' As Underlying Factors Favor Him Despite Harris' Poll Lead

Despite nationwide polls pointing to a slight edge for Kamala Harris in the presidential race, prominent polling data analyst Nate Silver said this week that it is still Donald Trump‘s election to lose.

New-Less Cycle Favors Trump: Google Search interest in Trump has gone down by two to three times relative to past elections, and as a consequence, the numbers for Democrats have gone up, said Silver in his latest Substack post. That said, the fact that Harris’ Democratic National Convention bounce quickly evaporated may have been due to the gravity of the election favoring Trump, he said.

“In news-less periods, he tends to become the favorite,” said Silver, who founded FiveThirtyEight but is now no longer associated with the polling analytics website.

This, according to the pollster, has implication for Harris’ strategy. If Trump tends to pull ahead when people aren't actively thinking about politics, she might want to more proactively drive the news cycle, he said. Trump was part of the past two elections, and both elections were closely fought, coming down to a few tens of thousands of votes in the electoral college, he noted.

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Why Trump’s Still Favorite: “Underlying circumstances of the race are favorable for Trump than in 2016 or 2020,” said Silver, adding that he would be a “clear favorite” if he were running a perfect campaign. The ex-president, however, wasn’t, he said. Once the post-debate polls are fully accounted for, the tally will get back to roughly 50-50, he added.

In a previous post, Silver cautioned against reading too much into the data received so far, given it would take several days to conduct a traditional poll.

The polling veteran based his expectations for an even contest on a few factors, namely:

• Electoral College: Trump is currently 2.5 points ahead of Harris in terms of electoral college votes, according to Silver’s forecast model. On a map that gives rural white voters more influence, Trump’s populist coalition outperforms and on that same count, Harris and other Democrats are running uphill, Silver said.
• Economy: Silver made note of his proprietary Silver Bulletin economic index, which showed that the real disposable personal – the income left after paying taxes, has been flat during President Joe Biden’s tenure. This metric has been historically one of the best predictors of election outcomes, he said. There is more producer surplus than ever, while consumers are squeezed and prices are about 20% higher than when Biden assumed office, he noted.
• Anti-incumbent mood: Globally, incumbent parties suffered setbacks in elections held in 2024, with Tories suffering one of their worst defeats in the U.K. and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi ceding a significant number of seats, he noted. That said, Harris’ campaign has been trying to frame Trump as the incumbent despite her party running the White House for three-and-a-half years, he said.
• Harris’ Far Left Track Record: The two pushbacks Harris faced when she entered the fray as a replacement for Biden on the Democratic ticket was the perception that she is not a natural politician and that she has “veered far to the left of the median voter, especially in her 2019 campaign.” “While she's overcome doubts about the former concern, the latter could still be an issue,” Silver said.
• Failed Attempt on Trump’s Life: Following the shooting at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania, Trump’s favorability ratings improved to the highest they have been in years, Silver said. However, the polling veteran said Trump squandered the opportunity with a “meandering convention speech a few days later.” This is “one of a number of major mistakes he and his campaign have made, from their selection of Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) to their lack of prep work for this week's debate,” he added.

“Trump is still in reasonably good shape for all the reasons I mentioned above, and I don't think the Harris campaign is entirely bluffing when it calls itself the underdog,” said Silver.

“But if the coin comes up tails and Trump loses, he'll have let the election slip out of his grasp.”

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