The 2024 presidential race is still close despite the ripples created by Vice President Kamala Harris early on when she replaced President Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket. The evenness of the contest has rendered the election outcome the key swing states important, and the results of a poll conducted in the most important among the swing states published on Monday should bring cheer to the Democratic camp.
Who’s Ahead: Forty-nine percent of the likely voters from the state of Pennsylvania picked Harris as the one they would pick or would lean toward in the 2024 election, the USA Today/Suffolk poll found. The state ballot list contained Harris, Republican party nominee Donald Trump, Libertarian Party’s Chase Oliver and Green Party’s Jill Stein. About 46% pledged allegiance to Trump, 2% backed Oliver, and 1% picked Stein. A sizeable 5% said they were undecided.
The survey collected responses from 500 likely Pennsylvania general election voters on Sept. 11 and Sept. 14, through live telephone interviews, and the margin of error of the survey is +/- 4.4 percentage points.
Expectedly, Harris prevailed among women voters in Pennsylvania with 56%-39% support, while Trump led by 53%-14% among men. More independent voters favored Harris than Trump (43%-38%).
Biden won the state by a narrow margin of 1.12% in 2020, wresting it from Trump, who himself scraped through by an anemic margin of 0.72% in 2016.
The Suffolk poll showed that 93% of the likely voters said they had made up their minds, while only 5% said they could change their minds and 1% said they were undecided.
The presidential debate, in which Harris is widely perceived to be the winner, has pushed some of the voters to choose Trump. Before the debate, nearly 51% sided with Harris, and 42% with Trump. and nearly 7% were undecided. Biden’s job approval rating is a worse “net negative” 6 points.
Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes are among the most among the seven swing states.
Approval Rating: Trump did better than Harris in terms of job approval ratings. The former had a net neutral job approval rating (taking into account those who strongly approve and merely approve vs. those who strongly disapprove or disapprove) for his job as president during his tenure, while Harris had a net negative 3-point approval rating for her job as vice president.
Pushbacks: When those who said they voted for Biden in 2020 but did not pick Harris this time around were asked the reasons for their choice, nearly 24% mentioned inflation/economy and about 10% each said border/immigration and Israel/Gaza. A sizeable 24% said they were ignorant of Harris’ policies. About 24% said they were still undecided.
When the same question was posed to pro-Trumpers in 2020 but not now, 33% mentioned his poor behavior as the reason.
Forty-seven percent of respondents said they were worse than they were four years ago and over 8% said it was no different, while about 43% said they were better off.
Harris Leads In Key Counties: The vice president had the upper hand in the Northampton and Erie counties, which USA Today dubbed as “bellwether” counties that have historically predicted who carries the state. Separate polls conducted by USA Today/Suffolk University showed that Harris led Northampton County by a 50%-45% margin. Biden won the county in 2020 by a 50%-49% margin and Trump took it away by a 49%-47% margin in 2016.
Harris’ support in the county comes mainly from the Latino voters.
In Erie County in Northwest Pennsylvania, Harris led by 48%-44%. Biden won the county in 2020 by a 50%-49% margin and Trump won in 2016 by a 49%-47% margin.
Did You Know?
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